Security threats keep Russian leader vigilant

US' stringent proposals

Some EU countries have balked at the US' most stringent proposals, including proposed restrictions on Russian oil and gas imports and cutting Russian banks out of the Swift payments system.

British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said:"NATO is a defensive alliance, and Ukraine continues to show commendable restraint in the face of Russian provocation and aggression."

However, Italy's Prime Minister Mario Draghi said on Dec 22 that NATO, of which Italy is a member, had "other priorities" and that Europe, which imports about 40 percent of its gas from Russia, could not give up Russian gas supplies.

Michael Kofman, a specialist on the Russian military at the research organization CNA Corp, said the large-scale deployment of Russian forces on Ukraine's border would be costly for Moscow to sustain indefinitely and that Putin may have difficulty backing down from his public demands.

Russia's "diplomatic efforts appear more a justification than a genuine attempt to find compromise", Kofman said on Dec 21. "This is all trending in one direction."

Speaking during the annual news conference, Putin welcomed talks with the US, which he said are set to start in Geneva this month, as a positive move, but warned that Moscow expects the discussion to produce quick results.

"Our American partners are telling us they're ready to start this discussion, these negotiations," Putin said. "Representatives from both sides have been appointed. I hope that this is the way the situation will play out."

Although both White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said later that neither Biden nor Putin had yet to agree on a time and place for fresh talks with each other, Moscow said the two presidents built a good rapport.

"When they talk, they are very constructive, businesslike and very respectful in laying out for each other the points where our views are directly opposite," Peskov said, adding that he was unsure if the presidents liked one another.

The Director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, Ruslan Pukhov, agreed that starting a fresh dialogue for US and Russian leaders would be difficult. Issues related to Ukraine will clearly be one of the main topics of the upcoming Russian-US talks in Geneva, along with the deployment of intermediate-range missiles to Europe, he said, adding that so far it was not about talks with Ukraine itself.

Dmitry Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, said:"There will be a conversation with the Americans, and depending on how it goes and what instructions Washington hands down to Kiev, a channel for a conversation with Ukraine may be unblocked, though it will hardly be initiated at the level of the presidents."

The fact that the date and location for a meeting between Russian and US negotiators have been agreed on is a positive sign, Trenin said. In other respects, Putin reiterated Moscow's well-known position. According to the Russian leader's logic, the Americans are now ready to engage in talks only under the threat of a conflict, Trenin said.

Putin has been playing the military and military-technical cards with the US, but the latter is now taking a back seat because Washington is more impressed by the threat of a full-scale conventional war in Eastern Europe than by Russia's capabilities to conduct nuclear missile attacks, Trenin said.

The conclusion is that Putin's rhetoric and actions are a clear demonstration of force, but it is linked to the desire to stabilize the deteriorating military and political situation in Europe, he said.

'Too early to say'

However, it is too early to talk about de-escalation in Russia's relations with the US and NATO, said Andrey Kortunov, director-general of the Russian International Affairs Council.

The outcome of the talks will largely depend on how Washington shapes the agenda, he said.

The US could refuse to discuss a range of issues that would fall with NATO's purview. The most important of them is the potential accession of Ukraine and Georgia to NATO, he said. The US is likely to limit this to a discussion on the nondeployment of new short- and intermediate-range missiles and strategic stability in Europe. The question remains open whether this format will be acceptable for Russia, but the fact that Moscow's proposals were not rejected on the spot is encouraging, Kortunov said.

The issue regarding the deployment of weapons to Europe certainly ranks high on the list for Moscow and seems to be the most promising at the negotiations, said Alexander Yermakov, a military expert with the Valdai Discussion Club.

All sides are likely to reach a consensus in terms of discussing the issue related to the short- and intermediate-range missiles in Europe.

Putin, who is to attend the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics in China in February, also criticized the US' announcement of not sending a delegation of government officials to the Games, describing it as a mistake and part of efforts by Washington to contain China's growing might.

Putin also dismissed arguments that Moscow was hoarding gas amid the EU energy crunch to press for a quick approval of the newly built Nord Stream 2 pipeline, saying that the Russian gas company Gazprom has even overfulfilled its obligations under long-term contracts.

Agencies and Xinhua contributed to this story.