Europe bears brunt of Russia-Ukraine conflict rooted in NATO expansion, says economist

EUROPEANS PAYING HIGH PRICE INSTEAD OF US

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is in a way "a proxy war between Russia and the United States ... which is fought in Europe," he said.

"Now the cost for the United States is minimal. The sanctions are hurting the Europeans ... The incentive for the United States to finish (the conflict) quickly is not really there, because they (the Europeans) are paying the highest price," Geraci noted.

Amid the escalating conflict, the United States has been stoking tensions in the region, shipping weapons into Ukraine and pushing its allies to impose sweeping sanctions against Russia.

"The European Union (EU) has not a red line and a foreign policy -- this puts us in a very weak position," he said.

"Our concerns and interests are in conflict, because we are allies of the US, but the economic interests and even the foreign policy of the EU are not always those of the US"

EUROPE TO BE WEAKER CUTTING OFF TRADE WITH RUSSIA

The Russia-Ukraine conflict could lead to "a weaker Europe because the economy there could take a serious hit."

In the medium and long term, if Europe loses Russia as a trading partner, and they reconcile after the conflict ends, Europe will suffer, he said.

"We are imposing sanctions on energy products thinking that these would hurt the Russian economy. However, they would hurt the EU's economy more," he said, noting that Italy, Germany and a number of smaller countries in eastern Europe will be stranded.

By way of example, he cited EU's ban on the export of luxury goods to Russia, which would "hurt brands like Gucci and Prada."

"We are doing everything wrong," he warned. "We are imposing export bans, which would only hurt us."

In 2021, Russia was the EU's fifth-largest export and third largest import destination, according to Eurostat, the EU's statistical office.

Trade in goods between the EU and Russia totaled 257.5 billion euros ($279.4 billion) in 2021.

"Sanctions never work," Geraci said. "To solve this issue, we have to use diplomacy with Russia. We don't just need to go to Kyiv. We need to go to Moscow."