One in 179 Americans will be killed if crime rate continues, study says

A study investigating murders in 2021 based on death certificate statistics predicts one out of every 179 Americans will eventually be a murder victim if the US murder rate remains at the 2021 level, Fox News reported on Monday.

"That means if you're in the United States, you live here, you're born and you spend your life here, your odds of your life ending by murder are one in 179," the report cited James Agresti, author of the study and president and co-founder of Just Facts as saying.

Just Facts, a nonprofit research institute, conducted a project to examine how many people were murdered in the US in 2021 after weeks of news outlets and experts pointing out there was no exact figure for murders in 2021 because the FBI released incomplete data for that year and based on estimates.

The FBI launched a new recording program, the National Incident-Based Reporting System, at the beginning of 2021 to provide a more comprehensive snapshot of offenses.

But nearly 40 percent of the nation's police departments did not provide the FBI with full crime data before the March 2022 deadline.

According to the report, the FBI estimated between 21,300 to 24,600 people were murdered in the US last year, but that data is hidden in its report, Just Facts said in its study, "As Murders Soar, FBI Buries the Data."

NewsNation and other media have reported the murder count was much lower, 14,677, and claimed it as proof murders are on a downward trend.

However, after examining death certificate data for 2021 from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Just Facts was able to determine some 24,493 people were murdered last year.

"For decades, the FBI has undercounted murders, while death certificates have overcounted them. Starting with data from death certificates and removing justifiable homicides provides a more reliable estimate of murders," Just Facts' study concludes.

Just Facts found one in 179 Americans will eventually be murdered. The number is shocking, which both Agresti and the study note, but Just Facts said it's ironclad.