New LDP leader faces key challenge

The newly elected leader of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party faces a crucial task: establishing a stable foundation ahead of the upcoming general election following the dissolution of the House of Representatives.

To succeed, Shigeru Ishiba — expected to become Japan's next prime minister after winning the LDP race on Friday — must unify the party and restore its reputation, which has been tarnished by a series of "money and politics" scandals, experts said.

Ishiba, 67, a former defense minister and former LDP secretary-general, defeated Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, 63, by a margin of 215 votes to 194.

Ishiba's victory is attributed to the perception that his more stable image would appeal more to voters as the "face of the election" compared with the far-right-leaning Takaichi, said Kazuyuki Hamada, an international political economy scholar and former Japanese parliamentary vice-minister of foreign affairs.

"To address the so-called 'dark money' issue, the only solution is to push for thorough disclosure of information, including revising the Political Funds Control Act, to ensure there are no unexplained funds," Hamada said.

Shigeaki Koga, a policy analyst and former official at the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, said that despite Ishiba's election as LDP president, his support within the party remains relatively weak. Therefore, his most pressing task is to unify the party's various factions.

At a news conference following Friday's election, Ishiba said he intended to dissolve the House of Representatives and call for a general election after engaging in debates with opposition parties in the Diet, Japan's national legislature.

"To prepare for the upcoming general election, which will be his top priority, Ishiba must avoid deepening divisions within the party," Koga said.

Ishiba has previously indicated he may reopen investigations into the LDP's various scandals. With the general election approaching, he may take a public stance on reexamining past controversies to gain voter trust, Koga said. He might even withhold endorsements for LDP members who have faced heavy criticism over issues such as slush funds.

Maintaining unity

However, Koga cautioned that if Ishiba enforces overly strict policies after the election, it could foster resentment within the party, complicating efforts to maintain unity. To avoid this, he may steer clear of taking excessively harsh actions.

Takakage Fujita, secretary-general of the Association for Inheriting and Propagating the Murayama Statement, a Japanese civic group, said addressing the issue of illicit funds and tax evasion is the most urgent challenge facing the LDP.

However, the LDP is highly resistant to implementing political reforms or opposing money-driven corruption, he said. While Ishiba is expected to become Japan's 102nd prime minister when the Diet convenes for an extraordinary session on Tuesday, Fujita said he believes substantial and meaningful reforms, as expected by the public, are unlikely to be pursued.

On the economic front, Ishiba has proposed addressing challenges by raising the minimum wage and shifting focus away from policies that favor large corporations, instead prioritizing support for small businesses and ordinary citizens.

"However, with Japan's severe national debt, Ishiba is unlikely to adopt broad policies of indiscriminate financial handouts," Koga said. Ishiba is expected to target specific areas to ensure financial aid reaches those who genuinely need it.

Kumiko Haba, a professor emeritus at Aoyama Gakuin University in Tokyo, expressed hope that Ishiba will fulfill his promise to raise the national average minimum wage to 1,500 yen ($10.55) per hour.

"However, in Japan, wage increases often lead to higher prices, so I doubt people's lives will improve significantly under Ishiba's leadership," Haba said.

In addition, Ishiba has not addressed key issues such as improving social security or creating a more child-rearing-friendly society, which suggests he may oppose the concept of a large government that expands social security, she added.

Noriyuki Kawamura, an emeritus professor at Nagoya University of Foreign Studies, said Ishiba may implement measures to curb rising prices and raise the minimum wage to support the elderly and low-income individuals.

Ishiba has also indicated plans to revisit the tax system, including potential increases in corporate taxes and taxes on high-income earners. However, Kawamura said opposition from business circles, particularly large corporations, could deter Ishiba from fully pursuing these changes.