GDP goal to be met on positive cues

China is poised to meet its annual growth target of around 5 percent this year as positive factors continue to accumulate heading into the fourth quarter, and as the effects of recent stimulus policies gradually take hold, economists said on Friday.

Their comments came as China reported key economic indicators on Friday, showing sustained recovery trends in October because of a set of incremental policy measures that have significantly bolstered market confidence.

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that retail sales, a key measure of consumer spending, grew by 4.8 percent year-on-year in October, up from 3.2 percent in September.

"In October, market sales accelerated significantly, and consumer confidence improved, which have helped stabilize and boost the economy," NBS spokesman Fu Linghui said at a news conference in Beijing on Friday.

However, challenges still remain, such as limited consumer willingness and purchasing power, Fu said, calling for more efforts to promote high-quality employment, increase household incomes and facilitate trade-in deals for consumer goods to stimulate consumption.

Looking ahead, Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura, said his team expects retail sales growth to remain elevated over the rest of the year, as the trade-in program continues to boost sales of cars and white goods.

Lu said his team recently raised the fourth-quarter GDP growth forecast for China to 4.9 percent year-on-year from 4.4 percent. Nomura has also revised the full-year GDP growth rate from 4.7 percent to 4.8 percent.

NBS data showed China's value-added industrial output grew by 5.3 percent year-on-year in October, while fixed-asset investment grew by 3.4 percent in the first 10 months.

Citing a package of incremental policy measures announced in recent months, Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley, noted that "recent policy dynamics signal a strong turning of overall government policy in trying to bolster economic growth, boost confidence and stabilize expectations."

Xing said he expects to see additional fiscal stimulus in the coming months, including measures to drive trade-in deals for consumer goods, provide childbirth subsidies, and offer more social welfare benefits for low-income groups.

Wang Tao, head of Asia economics and chief China economist at UBS Investment Bank, said there will be a strong fiscal impulse to support growth in the fourth quarter, lifting annual economic growth to close to 5 percent.

Additional fiscal support is expected to lift fourth-quarter GDP growth to more than 6 percent quarter-on-quarter and continue to support growth in 2025, Wang said, with additional policy support to come in the coming months amid a property slowdown and US tariff uncertainties.

Contact the writers at ouyangshijia@chinadaily.com.cn