El Nino takes a toll on physical and mental health

When I left Beijing with its four distinct seasons, including the harsh, cold winters, I was looking forward to the sun, sea and sand of Sydney.

Australia's largest city is known for basking under clear, blue skies with a comfortable, subtropical climate along the coast.

So the rain of recent weeks, promising to repeat the record-breaking wet weather of last year, has been very dampening.

Total rainfall hit above-average levels in many parts of the Greater Sydney area last year, with unseasonable weather patterns behind some of the wettest periods in the past decades, according to meteorologists.

The rain keeps many residents like me indoors in an increasingly sedentary lifestyle — ocean swims, park runs, forest hikes, and tennis lessons have to be postponed or downright canceled — very different from the attractive sports — and nature-centered image of living in Australia.

This weather can take its toll on physical and mental health, with health professionals pointing to how less sunlight translates to lower levels of serotonin, known as the hormone affecting emotional and sleep quality.

Less time spent outdoors because of rain means missing out on many social activities that generate feelings of well-being.

Amid all this apparent doom and gloom, I may not have been the only one who saw a bright side to the news about the oncoming major weather phenomenon El Nino in this part of the world.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology in mid-June officially declared El Nino active, with related events "part of a natural cycle in the Pacific Ocean that can affect global weather".

El Nino often brings drier conditions to central and eastern Australia in winter and spring in the Southern Hemisphere, it said.

Rainfall is likely to be below average across parts of southern and eastern Australia, with temperatures above average in most areas, except parts of the north; but below-average rainfall does not mean no rain — "just less than usual", according to forecasts.

Australia's weather is also shaped by other climate factors, so outcomes can vary, according to the weather bureau.

But my anticipation of dry days here can seem selfish when considering the broader, serious impact of El Nino on one of the driest places on Earth — many parts of Australia are particularly prone to heat waves and fires.

Experts say that with hotter-than-normal weather across southern Australia, occurring against the background of already higher temperatures because of human-caused climate change, there is a need to prepare for increased bushfires and other major risks.

"The announcement that El Nino is officially here can be scary for Australians. Historically, some of our hottest and driest weather has been associated with El Nino events, which release a big pulse of heat from the ocean into the atmosphere," Adelaide University's climate researcher Georgy Falster said via the Scimex research exchange platform.

"But it is important to remember that an El Nino event — even a big one — does not guarantee drought. All we can say is that the chance of lower-than-normal rainfall is higher during an El Nino event."

"These effects tend to be strongest in spring, and to a lesser degree in summer. So we won't learn the full impacts of this particular El Nino for a while," Falster said, adding that "even though fire season is still a fair way away, it will be worth considering fire preparedness early".

Fire risk can certainly feel very real and close for me. Living in a high-density apartment complex in Sydney, false alarms frequently incur costly fines from firefighter deployments that are needed in genuine life-threatening cases, while regular inspections of firefighting equipment and systems are strictly enforced.

Farther out in rural Australia, bushfires have devastated residential communities and wildlife, including vulnerable koala populations. The iconic, once-abundant marsupials have been hit hard as they suffer habitat loss, burns and starvation with swathes of eucalyptus forests which they feed on wiped out.

The arrival of El Nino in the months ahead will perhaps prove once again that when it comes to climate change intensifying the impact of extreme weather, the real danger is usually felt far beyond the time, space and concerns of any individual.

The author is a correspondent at China Daily Asia-Pacific Bureau based in Sydney.