Navigating Sino–European trade headwinds

Nor should it be overlooked that the EU has long maintained a surplus in services trade with China. In 2025, China's services trade deficit with the EU reached $48.3 billion, accounting for 41.6 percent of its total services trade deficit, according to Chinese authorities. The EU was, therefore, China's largest source of such a deficit.

With China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–30) explicitly calling for a better balance between imports and exports, as well as an expansion of trade in services, experts said there remains immense potential for win-win cooperation in the sector, which could help grease the wheels of bilateral ties.

Some have said such commitments are not entirely new. However, Alex Zhou, a consultant at China Macro Group, a macroeconomic consulting and research company with offices in Zurich, Munich, and Beijing, said the precise wording in the document is key to understanding the depth of China's commitment.

"It is a pragmatic response to current geopolitical headwinds, while also reflecting China's own needs at its next stage of development. China is seeking to transition towards a growth model driven more by domestic demand, rather than relying heavily on external markets amid growing geopolitical uncertainty," he said.

"Imports then become increasingly important, because in many areas, including services, the domestic supply of high-quality offerings remains insufficient, which leaves room for European providers to play a greater role."

Betty Wang, head of Northeast Asia research at United Kingdom think tank Oxford Economics, noted that services accounted for nearly 58 percent of China's GDP and close to half of total employment in 2025. These figures demonstrate the sector's already substantial role in driving growth and stabilizing the job market.

Yet its share of economic output remains below the 70 to 80 percent typically seen in developed economies, suggesting that the shift still has further to run.

Media headlines tend to focus heavily on goods trade, partly because tangible products, particularly those linked to national security, make for more eye-catching figures, Wang said. Services, along with the sheer size of China's untapped market, tend to fade into the background.

In fact, services also drive the bulk of the bloc's economy, accounting for roughly 74 percent of its GDP and two-thirds of its jobs, making the sector by far its largest employer. The EU was the world's number one exporter of services, with its services trade surplus reaching a decade-high in 2024, according to Eurostat, the EU's statistics agency.