At the 9th China International Import Expo, which opened in Shanghai on Nov 5 and runs through Tuesday, global participants explored new opportunities in the world's second-largest import market.
In 2025, China imported 18.48 trillion yuan ($2.77 trillion) worth of goods. But for companies looking to export to China, what matters is the composition of imports, not just the overall volume. Unlike many other nations, China's imports are predominantly raw materials, capital goods and intermediates. Consumer goods make up only a small fraction of the total imports.
China has long aimed to rebalance the economy by boosting consumer spending, and the efforts have had some success. Today, the country has a vast and growing middle-income population, a segment expected to expand further in the years ahead. If efforts to unlock consumer demand succeed, China's consumer spending could outpace its overall economic growth in the coming years.
For potential exporters of consumer goods to China, it is important to understand how its personal consumption market is different from other countries.
To start with, China's household consumption rate was 40 percent in 2025.
Furthermore, the share of consumer spending on imports in the Chinese mainland is relatively low compared with the level suggested by global trends. In this regard, China is similar to other large emerging economies such as Indonesia, but remains more open than India.
One distinctive feature of the Chinese consumer market is its dominance by middle-income and lower-income consumers. In the United States, for example, affluent consumers drive total spending. It is hard to estimate by just how much, because middle-income people respond far more readily to survey questionnaires compared with the rich, so models are needed to fill the gaps. The same is true in China. Accordingly, the most rapid growth in consumption in China is expected among middle-income consumers.
According to data from World Data Lab, a Vienna-based market intelligence company I co-founded, China's middle-income consumers are expanding most rapidly in county towns and rural areas. By 2036, consumers in those areas are projected to spend $3 trillion more than they did in 2026 at current prices. This is six times more than the $500 billion combined additional spending expected from China's four major city regions — Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen and Guangzhou in Guangdong province.
Another unique trend in China is the rapid decline in household size, with more people living alone or as couples. This means that despite a declining population, China will still need to add about 77 million houses by 2036. The houses will be smaller, but each will still need furniture and appliances. More households also mean more pets and a growing market for pet foods and care. Urban households in China already have 126 million pet dogs and cats and that number is expected to grow rapidly.
As consumers grow wealthier, they not only upgrade to higher-quality versions of what they already buy but also diversify their purchases, often turning to imports. A good example is the consumption of fruits.
This year, Chinese households are expected to spend $188 billion on fruits, with imports accounting for about $22 billion. Southeast Asia is the primary foreign supplier. The region accounted for 60 percent of what China spent on fruit imports in 2025, up from about 40 percent in 2016. The region's fruit sales to China have risen fivefold in those nine years, while China's fruit imports from the rest of the world have grown about 2.4 times. As the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 Upgrade Protocol, signed in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, in October 2025, gets ratified, Southeast Asia's growers are poised to capture even more of the growth in China's fruit imports.
China is vast, rapidly evolving and increasingly opening up to foreign trade. As the expo comes to a close, companies should look beyond aggregate numbers and tailor their offerings. Premium brands can thrive in affluent urban centers, while everyday goods are suited for smaller households with modest budgets in county towns. Diverse products such as fruits will find a market in urban areas. Companies that develop a deeper understanding of the spatial distribution of China's market, demographic trends and customer preferences stand to reap spectacular rewards.
The author is the co-founder and chief economist at World Data Lab, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a former chief economist for the World Bank's East Asia and Pacific region and has served as the lead author and executive secretary of the secretariat supporting the UN High Level Panel on the post-2015 development agenda.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
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