"I expect banks' profits will increase by an average 20 percent a year for
the next five years," he said.
Sanft of BNP Paribas predicted that
Chinese banks' earnings will be "very good" in 2007. He said the only potential
risk was non-performing loans (NPLs). But he said he did not expect NPLs to
increase in the next two years.
BNP Paribas was particularly bullish
about the capital goods sector. Mechanization, Sanft said, would lead China's
fourth stage of industrialization with the extensive use of machinery spreading
through the manufacturing industry as China moves up the value-added
ladder.
Zhang of Industrial Securities said he expected the profit growth
of manufacturers of machinery and equipment to continue at a brisk pace. In the
first eight months of 2006, these companies' profits had increased an average of
35 percent from a year earlier.
Huang Dongsheng, an analyst at Changjiang
Securities, predicted the share prices of heavy machinery manufacturers would
increase by an average of 25 percent in 2007.
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