China's trade with the ASEAN, which reached record highs in 2006, is expected
to grow at a slower rate this year.
Experts said 2007 will be another
robust year, but growth will cool slightly.
Bilateral service sector
trade between China and the bloc is meanwhile expected to begin an upward trend,
with a series of agreements likely to be signed on Sunday.
"The
China-ASEAN trade volume will keep growing this year, but a little slower than
in 2006, perhaps at around 20 percent," predicted Lu Jianren, a senior
researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Since China and
the ASEAN signed commodity trade agreements in November 2004, bilateral trade
has grown rapidly, climbing to a peak rate of expansion in
2006.
According to statistics from the Ministry of Commerce, bilateral
trade reached $129.91 billion during the first 10 months of 2006, a year-on-year
increase of 23.1 percent and accounting for 9.1 percent of China's foreign
trade.
"Despite negative factors such as bird flu, shaky energy security
and political turmoil in some areas, bilateral trade growth will continue its
momentum," said Lu.
It is said the China-ASEAN free trade area, when
established in 2015, will be the third largest worldwide with an economy
reaching $3 trillion.
Service sectors are expected to become a major
driving force in it, said Lu.
Some experts have raised fears the free
trade agreement will have a negative impact on local industries, as Southeast
Asian nations such as Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand already have well
developed service economies with powerful tourism, law, auditing and exhibitions
sectors.
But Lu doesn't think so. "We have our own strengths, such as
infrastructure," he said.
By September 2006, China and the ASEAN had signed
construction contracts worth $4.08 billion, and Lu predicted the figure would
have risen to $5.3 billion by the end of 2006.
Vietnam's entry into the World
Trade Organization (WTO) is also a blessing for China.
Vietnam, China's
major trade partner among the 10 ASEAN nations and a gateway to Southeast Asia,
became the official 150th WTO member on Thursday.
"China's auto industry
will be the biggest beneficiary, especially after the three-year transition
period when local auto companies become able to invest in Vietnam as
foreign-owned enterprises," said Lu.
(For more biz stories, please visit Industry Updates)