China on alert for possible Grexit

China's economy expanded at its slowest rate in nearly three years in the first quarter of 2012, growing 8.1 percent year-on-year, as the European sovereign debt crisis diminished export orders and a subdued property sector cooled investment.

Export and industrial output growth rebounded slightly in May from lower-than-expected levels in April, but fixed-asset investment and retail sales have continued to slow, according to official data.

To buoy the slowing economy, China announced its first interest rate cut in more than three years last week. It has also fast-tracked some investment projects, opened the way for private capital to enter state-dominated industries and provided subsidies for purchases of energy-saving home appliances.

Economic troubles are likely to continue to plague Greece, which will weaken China's exports gradually, said Yao Wei, China economist at Societe Generale.

China's monthly import and export growth will likely stay in the single-digits from now until the third quarter, he forecast.

However, Xiang said he believes there is no need to worry too much about the impact, as China's major trading partner in the eurozone is Germany, whose economy remains resilient.

Exporters have been advised to prepare for fluctuations in the euro's value against the yuan, which will incur greater risks of exchange losses.

The euro is expected to continue depreciating against the yuan in the near future and Chinese firms can use forward foreign exchange contracts and other financial derivatives to hedge exchange risks, said Ye Yaoting, a foreign exchange analyst with the Bank of Communications.

Companies should change euros into US dollars or yuan and receive future payments in non-euro currencies as much as possible, advised Wan Chao, an investment manager at Ping An Asset Management Co Ltd.

The EU is China's largest trading partner. Its trade with China edged up 1.3 percent year-on-year in the first five months of 2012, compared to the 7.7-percent growth of the country's total foreign trade.

Meanwhile, Chinese banks have been scaling back financial derivative trading with European banks to reduce exposure to risks.

The Bank of China, China's third-largest lender, suspended purchases of derivatives, such as credit default swaps, from French banks Societe Generale and Credit Agricole at the end of 2011.

The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and the Bank of Communications have also reduced investment product transactions with Societe General, Credit Agricole and French lender BNP Paribas, according to the banks' reports.

Although China's financial sector has very limited exposure to sovereign and bank asset risks in the eurozone, massive capital outflow from risky markets will affect China if Greece breaks away from the eurozone, Yu Yongding, a former central bank advisor, was reported as saying in late May.

China's central bank and other departments should consider measures, including capital controls, capital market suspension and contingency fund injections, to counter the impact of a possible Greek withdrawal, Yu proposed.

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