Analysts expect stronger Chinese economy

Growth in China's real, or inflation-adjusted, GDP may turn out to have rebounded in the second half of 2012 - around 8 percent to 8.4 percent on an annualized basis, Steinbock said.

While warning that downside risks globally remain high - namely, fiscal wrangling in the US and debt crises in the eurozone - he said long-term growth prospects make China well-equipped to cope with their effects.

Yukon Huang, a senior associate at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a former World Bank country director for China, said there is an overemphasis on slower Chinese growth. It isn't necessary for China's economy to keep expanding at its previous pace of 9 percent a year or more, he said.

"Slower growth can be a better thing because it's a higher-quality growth and is sustainable," Huang said. "Two years ago China needed to grow fast to generate more jobs and improve the living standard of its people."

Annual growth in per capita household income in China has been at least 8 percent, which is the highest rate in the world, the researcher pointed out.

On Nov 8, the 18th Congress of the Communist Party of China will begin, but the leadership transition won't be completed until spring next year, when the First Session of the 12th National People's Congress will be held.

How the transition unfolds could have implications for China's economic development, scholars and analysts say.

According to Huang, China's current leadership is under some pressure to achieve a "soft landing" for the economy.

"They realize they cannot overstimulate the economy or do anything excessive," he said. "It's a problem, but it's a problem that will go away. The best thing they can do is to make sure there is enough liquidity in the market but not go for an excessive increase in investment."

Huang predicts Chinese exports will stabilize by the end of this year. The health of the global economy will largely depend on the eurozone crisis not getting worse, he said.

Ann Lee, an instructor at New York University and author of What the US Can Learn From China, said the manufacturing slowdown is a good thing. China's 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-15) is based partly on a strategy of focusing less on manufacturing and exports, she said. Wages in China have been rising by double-digit percentages for several years, as has growth in consumption, Lee added.

"With China rebalancing itself to a more service-oriented, consumption-led economy, the country can create more wealth this way," she said.

"A growing middle class in China enables European countries to have a second source other than the US to sell their goods to. If you have more market opportunities, it creates incentives for more entrepreneurs."

But it will take years, perhaps decades, for China to transform into a service-oriented economy from its current export-dependent model, Lee stressed.

While consumption is less than 35 percent of Chinese GDP, that figure could be undercounted by as many as 10 percentage points, Huang said - partly due to distorted data on spending, driven by housing values and investment.

To boost consumption in China, Huang recommends that the government implement policies aimed at increasing urbanization.

He recommends reform of hukou, a residency-permit system whereby household registration is legally required.

"It will help solve some of the social problems and help increase consumption in China, presenting a win-win situation for the country."

atung@chinadailyusa.com

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