Sunny, with slight chance of overcapacity

China's economic map will be "mostly sunny and partly cloudy". The Chinese government has set the growth target for 2014 at 7.5 percent. Though slightly lower than in 2013, the growth rate still lies squarely within a reasonable range to ensure medium to rapid economic growth. In the meantime, the government has launched a set of measures to pursue steady growth, structural readjustment and further reform. These policy responses, along with promoting "a new type" of urbanization, will cultivate new growth drivers for the nation's economy.

Economy shows 'optimistic changes': Li

Infographic: Five key words from Li's govt report

As for the cloudy weather, that means there will be challenges, which will include local government debt, shadow banking, overcapacity and environmental pollution. The government is both determined to and capable of solving these issues, and we are confident that it will.

The sunny as well as cloudy spots on the map of the global economy present both opportunities and challenges ahead for investors.

First, in terms of market investments, the US Federal Reserve will continue to taper its asset purchases, which will drive prices of multiple assets to normal levels or below comparable historic levels. For global equity market, the prices already have returned to normal levels, and that means that unless companies achieve exceptional profits, they will not be growing as strongly as they did in the past two years. The bond market will face considerable downward pressure, with interest rates trending upward. As for key commodities, price levels will be suppressed due to improvement on the supply side.

Secondly, as global liquidity levels recover, many unconventional investors are migrating their capital into long-term assets, which is a trend that will continue to unfold. But as long-term investments in developing countries are deemed to be riskier, capital will tend to chase assets in developed markets, leaving an investment shortfall growing in developing ones.

Third, with economic recovery taking hold, protectionism will be emerging in developed countries.

The writer is chairman of the Supervisory Board of China Investment Corp. The view do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

 

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