WTO predicts 'modest' rise in global trade

Global trade is expected to grow by a "modest" 4.7 percent in 2014, showing resilience following a slump over the past two years, the World Trade Organization said on Monday.

Before the release of this figure, several trade experts had predicted the WTO would lower its previous 4.5 percent forecast for this year.

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The recovery in the US and Europe should bring a bounce in international trade, while developing economies will continue to outpace developed economies in terms of GDP, according to the WTO. Trade growth will contribute to the trend, it said.

"For the last two years, trade growth has been sluggish. Looking ahead, if GDP forecasts hold true, we expect a broad-based but modest upturn in 2014 and further consolidation of this growth in 2015," WTO Director-General Roberto Azevedo said in a statement.

For developed economies, GDP growth for 2013 totaled 1.1 percent, lower than the 1.3 percent rate recorded in 2012 and the 1.5 percent expansion seen in 2011.

"Some developed economies risk factors have receded considerably since last year's news-release, including the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and fiscal brinksmanship between the executive and legislative branches of government in the United States," the WTO said.

But it cautioned that expected growth still lags behind the 5.3 percent average growth rate of the past two decades and also will be much lower than the average 6 percent of the pre-crisis period from 1990 to 2008.

The WTO also warned that growth of developing economies may slow. In addition, civil conflicts and territorial disputes in the Middle East, Asia and Eastern Europe could bring higher energy prices and disrupt trade flow.

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