Downturn in Q4 drags down labor market

China's economic downturn has extended to the fourth quarter, which has deteriorated the domestic labor market, adding pressure on policymakers to boost growth, a report from Standard Chartered said on Tuesday.

The bank's research on sample companies has shown that the impact on employment began with slower wage growth over the past six months, mainly driven by cooling manufacturing and housing investment.

"This has now extended to rising layoffs and plans to freeze wages in 2015." A continually softened labor market may drag down consumption and further decelerate the overall economic growth, it said.

Li Wei, a researcher at the Standard Chartered Bank (China) Ltd, said: "Given Beijing's low tolerance for a deteriorating labor market, we believe we are reaching the point where monetary policy – the most effective way to boost short-term growth – will have to be eased aggressively."

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in October, the growth of industrial output slowed to 7.7 percent year-on-year, down from 8 percent in September; the fixed-asset investment increased by 15.9 percent during the first 10 months, compared with 16.1 percent from January to September.

The report predicted that policymakers may cut the one-year benchmark deposit rate by 25 basis points before the year end. And there may be another cut in the first quarter next year.

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