China immune to side effects of ECB's QE?

Inflated euro sign is seen outside the new headquarters of the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Jan 22, 2015. [Photo/Agencies]

BRUSSELS - Quantitative Easing (QE) program by the eurozone is unlikely to impact directly on China through financial markets, but it may affect China's monetary policy-making and have an indirect negative impact on China's real economy in turn, experts have said.

If QE is successful for the EU, it may be good for Chinese export in the long run, but negative consequences for China lies in the fact that with major economies such as Japan and the eurozone pushing ahead with stimulus measures, China may be dragged into a "game" of competitive devaluation and even into a currency war it doesn't want, experts warned in interviews with Xinhua.

China export to EU

"The move to quantitative easing in the EU is unlikely to have major direct impacts on China through the financial markets, as China has a still largely closed capital account, so it is not fully open to portfolio inflows," Rupert Willis, desk officer for China in the Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs of the European Commission, told Xinhua.

"This insulates China to some extent from global monetary changes," he added.

However, he noted there may be some positive impact on China also. "If QE is successful in boosting demand and growth in Europe.

This could be positive for China through the impact on demand for Chinese exports."

Rajiv Memani, chairman of Global Emerging Markets Committee, Ernst & Young Global, told Xinhua the risk China may have to take is its exports to the EU.

"Such monetary policies need to be carefully watched depending upon the trade relations it carries. With a depreciating euro, China will be able to import more, but it's a risk for Chinese exports to EU," he said in a recent interview with Xinhua.

"The main effect is that Europe will restore its demand, which will also raise trade with China and other countries," said Fredrik Erixon, Director of the European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE).

"The important thing is that China's export to Europe has stagnated in the past years and that it will continues to be muted unless Europe can restore its economy," Erixon added.

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