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Where will hot money go?
By Rong Xiandong (Chinadaily.com.cn Staff Writer)
Updated: 2008-08-07 22:22

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Later this year, problems including more failures of export-oriented businesses, less government investments into infrastructure after the Olympic Games and declining domestic consumption, could short circuit China's economic engine, analysts said.

According to an estimate by 17 Chinese and foreign institutes including HSBC and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), one of China's major government think tanks, the country's gross domestic product will slow to 10 percent in the third quarter.

At a CPC Political Bureau meeting on July 25, the country's top leaders have shifted one of the country's top priorities for macro-economic controls in the second half of 2008 to maintain a steady and fast economic development from preventing the economy from overheating.

The previous policies were set late last year, when the Chinese economy steamed ahead with an 11.9 percent annual growth rate.

However, there are still challenges to maintain a steady and comparatively fast economic development in the second half, according to the meeting.

Li, who has been tracking the movement of hot money in his study, said his investigation of hot money also supported his argument as many of hot money holders are not upbeat about the post-Olympics economic outlook.

Li Yang, dean of the Institute of Finance under the CASS, estimated that between US$280 billion and US$520 billion of funds could exit China over a short period of time, according to the People's Daily. That compares to the country's US$1.81 trillion of foreign exchange reserves, the world's largest, according to statistics from the People’s Bank of China, the central bank.


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