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Two sessions fail to enthuse stocks
By Xin Zhiming (China Daily)
Updated: 2009-03-18 07:52

Two sessions fail to enthuse stocks

The roar of the so-called "two sessions" boom, eagerly anticipated by investors ahead of the country's most important annual meetings of the legislature early this month, was pretty much drowned out by the wail of the global financial crisis and economic recession that is showing no sign of getting better.

Indeed, the Chinese stock market had performed well in 10 of the past 14 years during the twin sessions of the legislative National People's Congress (NPC) and the advisory Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC).

With statistics on their side, analysts and individual investors alike had pinned high hopes on this year's two sessions as the Chinese economy performed relatively better than most of the developed countries, which have been trapped in a seemingly endless cycle of bank failures and government bailouts.

Such enthusiasm led Xu Wei, an analyst with Guojin Securities, to declare before the meetings that there was a high possibility that the market would go up during the sessions. Xu, and many other analysts, have greatly moderated their bullish outlook for the stock market since.

To be sure, the stock market rebounded smartly in the past two days on expectations of strong 2008 results from the country's major banks. But the yo-yo ride of the stock market since the opening of the two sessions have many investors biting their fingernails wondering what messages they should read into the volumes of official documents and a deluge of minor news they were fed daily by the highly-charged media.

"I thought I would see a profitable season during the two-week session," recalled He Hongdong, an individual investor. He is 35 years old, but is a greenhorn in stock investment.

Two sessions fail to enthuse stocks

Investors, however, have failed to make much profit as the Shanghai Composite Index fell from 2,242 points on March 5 (when the NPC session started) to 2,129 points last Friday, when the sessions ended.

The weak market has continued and the Shanghai index has not reached the March 5 level despite a big rally yesterday. This has been in sharp contrast to the clamor before the meetings.

The market gained by more than 6 percent on March 4 on rumors that Premier Wen Jiabao would announce fresh economic stimulus measures during the opening of the NPC session. In fact, before the two sessions started, many commentators said the prospects of the domestic A-share market were bright, arguing that the recovery of the Chinese economy would provide a solid back up for a sustained rise in the stock index.

Individual investor sentiment had obviously been played up by such an encouraging message. According to an online survey by sina.com.cn, one of the largest domestic portals, in late February, a majority of the more than 26,000 respondents it surveyed said they thought the market would rise significantly during the "two sessions".

As a sign of the improving market sentiment, securities companies had been busier during the two sessions than before. According to Wind statistics, they released 44 research notes specifically on the domestic stock market from March 8 to last Friday. In contrast, they brought out 30 reports during the Feb 8-13 week and 18 reports in the week from Nov 16-21 last year.

"We released research notes almost every day during the 'two sessions' period," said Bao Qing of Donghai Securities. "We offered our comments on the proposals by those taking part in the NPC and CPPCC sessions."

There are, however, calm observers and small investors. Not all of them are obsessed with the idea of making big profits from an imaginary boom.

"Individual investors should shake off the mentality that they can make a quick fortune during the two sessions even if the market rises," warned Zhao Jianxing, an analyst with China Merchants Securities. "They should sell, instead of buy, if the market rises."

Many fear the market has risen too much to be sustainable in the short term - it has risen by more than 40 percent since late last year, with prices of many stocks having doubled. Moreover, it may have reflected the favorable news such as the release of the country's specific stimulus measures for 10 industries well before the start of the two sessions and would not have been able to rise continually during the meetings.

Many investors agreed.

"I just sat idle despite the call from stock commentators for buying before the 'two sessions'," said Yang Monan, a Beijing-based individual investor who has more than 10 years of experience investing in the markets. "I did not buy any stocks (during that time)."

"The market had often fallen drastically during major national events," he said.

Indeed, many investors are having fresh memories of the August 2008 Olympic Games, when the stock market tumbled due to a selling spree, which was against investor expectations that the market would take advantage of the historic event, and surge.

It is better, therefore, for investors to focus on the longer-term trends which affect stock market performance, instead of paying excessive attention to the impact of the "two sessions", analysts said.

Many people, including policymakers and economists, have forecast that the Chinese economy would recover from the second quarter of this year before it regains its high rate of growth in the fourth quarter.

If that happens, it will be good for investors to invest in the market now rather than waiting for entrenched signs of economic recovery, since the stock market reacts ahead of any economic recovery.


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