Let the yuan rise gradually - adviser
China should
let the yuan rise gradually and diversify its fast-growing foreign exchange
reserves away from the dollar to reduce concentration risks, an adviser to the
central bank said in remarks published on Thursday.
The government
should also act to abolish its long-standing preferential tax treatment for
foreign investors, the China Business News quoted Yu Yongding, a prominent
economist who sits on the central bank's monetary policy committee, as saying.
"We should let the yuan appreciate, but only through a gradualist approach,"
the newspaper quoted Yu as saying.
"The pressure on the yuan to appreciate is growing, but it can't rise too
fast because that will hit export-oriented firms, including textile companies,"
he said.
China's growing trade surplus and inflows of foreign direct investment had
pushed up its foreign exchange reserves, generated upward pressure on the yuan
and made it harder for the central bank to manage monetary policy, Yu said.
China's foreign exchange reserves, which reached a world record $875.1
billion at the end of March, were on track to hit $1 trillion by the end of this
year, Yu said.
"The foreign exchange reserves will continue growing for a relatively long
period and a large part of the reserves are being held in the form of U.S.
dollar assets," he said.
"The assets are likely to lose their value if the dollar weakens or inflation
picks up in the United States. So we must make early preparations to prevent
possible trouble."
Analysts suspect China has been gradually reducing the share of dollars in
its reserves, but fears of a collapse in the U.S. currency will prevent it from
making any dramatic shift.
The rapid build-up of foreign exchange reserves meant the central bank, in
order to control the money supply, had to issue more bills to mop up, or
sterilise, the yuan it issued when buying dollars flowing into China, Yu said.
"My personal view is that such a sterilisation policy is unlikely to continue
forever, because the return on commercial banks' assets will be affected if it
persists," Yu said.
The central bank buys dollars to ensure the yuan does not rise too sharply
against the dollar despite the landmark 2.1 percent currency revaluation in
July.
Critics in the United States say the yuan remains undervalued, giving Chinese
exporters an unfair edge.