The following are some key points of Zheng Jingping's press
conference
Forex Reserves
"In the past, when foreign investors made profits in China they often
transferred the money to other countries, but now due to the improvement of the
Chinese market they can make good profits here, so they often reinvest in China.
"The Chinese government does not intend to have a high level of forex
reserves. On the contrary, the Chinese government has introduced policies to
bring greater balance to foreign trade and made adjustments to capital flows,
including the introduction of the qualified domestic institutional investor
scheme.
"The intention of these policies is to tone down the growth of forex
reserves.
"We also need help from other countries to allow us to import high-tech
products from them. So I believe that these policies by the central government,
if they are implemented effectively, will help bring about stable growth in
forex reserves."
FOREIGN TRADE
"The Chinese government has the measures, the confidence and the ability to
improve its trade by strengthening import and export management, especially by
implementing trade-tax policies.
"Because of the unique feature of the processing industry accounting for more
than half of foreign trade, it's hard to see balanced foreign trade in the short
run, and it's even harder to see a trade deficit because of the high proportion
of processing industry in our trade."
FDI
He said foreign direct investment has dipped because governments at all
levels have been standardising environmental and land use standards. Domestic
capital has been ample and many other countries have enhanced policies to
attract FDI.
"Finally, in recent years inflows of FDI have been around $60 billion a year,
so it's difficult to realise rapid growth based on such a high base figure.
"I think FDI growth in this year will maintain the level of last year.
"Because of the many years of FDI inflows, we need time to digest it to make
good use of the investment. At the current stage, I think it's good to improve
the balance of payments situation. We still welcome foreign investors to invest
in China."
GROWTH
"As for overall economic performance for the whole year, our belief is that
the overall situation is good, but growth is a little fast.
"The overall situation is good because industrial efficiency is increasing,
financial revenue is up and profits are up. Also, the incomes of both urban and
rural residents increased to some extent. Some of the bottlenecks in coal
production and transport have been alleviated, and prices are growing
moderately."
He said one reason for the fast growth is that this is the first year of the
11th five-year plan, so local governments are investing to boost their local
economies.
"As I said, investment in fixed assets is rapid, boosting capacity, so we
have ample supply. And as you can see, we have booming demand from various
fields, so it's inevitable to have such rapid growth at this stage.
"Looking at economic growth in the second half, there are factors that would
both slow and support the continuing strong growth of the economy."
The lagged impact of tightening measures and curbs on property speculation
could slow the economy.
"And some exporters have also sped up their exports in advance of changes to
the export tax rebate system.
"Another thing is that interest rates are a global phenomenon, and many
economies have started to tighten policy, so that will have some impact.
"We should mainly rely on economic and legal measures, and use some
administrative measures to guard against overly rapid growth. If we can use such
combined measures, economic growth in the second half can be both rapid and
stable."
INVESTMENT
"Overly rapid investment growth will lead to over-production capacity, which
will create financial risks. Also, some of the projects are not good enough.
"Either they're redundant or their rate of return is too low.
"This kind of resource-intensive growth pattern is not
scientific and has already aroused the attention of policy makers, who have
begun to implement measures to deal with this problem.
"Investment in assets is excessive and there is an oversupply of loans.
In the long run, those will cause inflation. So we need to
pay close attention to price changes."
INFLATION
"Because the allocation of production factors is becoming more globalised,
that reduces the cost of production. For example, a financial analyst working on
Wall Street might earn $200,000 a year, but if we hire one in India, the salary
might drop by half or more.
"High investment in fixed assets is another reason. So price rises in
upstream products are difficult to pass on to consumers. And right now, efforts
to improve environmental protection and set up a social security system are not
enough. So the low cost of production is in part a result of ineffective
policies.
"Another reason is that because of past investment in fixed assets, we now
have an overcapacity problem. "The causes of low CPI growth are still there in
the short run, so we do not expect a big rise in consumer prices in the rest of
the year -- that would not be realistic. However, I do expect prices to rise
eventually.
TIGHTENING TIMETABLE
"The central bank will wait for the relevant information to make their own
decisions."
"These things, if you look at them, some of them are starting to show
results, for example, the latest one was July 5. There's a time lag for those
measures to have an impact on economic performance. So we need time to see their
impact. But the figures for June show that the measures have already started to
take effect. For example, loan growth was down in June."
LIQUIDITY
"Indeed, liquidity is quite high and credit issuing is quite fast, and these
are quite pronounced problems in economic life at present. * "China will also
address the liquidity problem stemming from excessive foreign exchange reserves
by taking measures involving foreign exchange management and sterilisation."
YUAN
"The reform of the yuan's exchange rate mechanism has been successful. We can
see it is now more flexible, with ups and downs against the dollar.
"With the Chinese economy more and more part of the global economy, the issue
of the yuan's exchange rate is closely related to the global economy and
international issues, so if there are any problems in China's financial system,
that would affect the world's financial system. Investors in and outside of
China are aware of that, and of the importance of these issues.
"An administered, one-off yuan appreciation or depreciation will never happen
again. There will be no more surprises.
"People who want...to wager on a yuan appreciation and so on are doomed to
fail."