Reform test for the new leadership

China' new leadership will be unveiled at the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China at a time the country and the world are entering a phase of economic uncertainty.

The downturn in the developed economies is not likely to be over any time soon. The "fiscal cliff" on which the United States is perched, the mounting public debts of Japan and the continuing recession in Europe point to great downward risks the world economy faces. It may take a decade, even more, for the developed economies to put their economy back on track.

Against this background, China's exports, one of its important growth engines, may have to be content at growing around 10 percent a year. The contribution of exports to China's economic growth will drop from about 3 percentage points in the last decade to about 1 percentage point in the next decade. China, therefore, needs to find new engines of growth in its domestic markets.