Trumping the yuan in a volatile world

At the recently concluded World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland, President Xi Jinping mounted a robust defense of globalization, reaffirming his country's "open-door" policy and pledging never to seek to start a trade war or to benefit from depreciation of its currency. Soon after, US President Donald Trump, in his inaugural address, effectively made the opposite pledge: using the word "protect" seven times, he confirmed that his "America First" doctrine means protectionism.

Trump speaks of the United States as an economy in decline that must be revitalized. But the reality is that the US economy has been performing rather well over the last two years.

The dollar's value has risen particularly high in the last few months, as Trump's promises to increase government spending, lower business taxes, and cut regulation have inspired a flight to quality by investors. In contrast, the Chinese yuan has weakened significantly - from 6.2 yuan per dollar at the end of 2014 to 6.95 yuan at the end of last year - owing largely to declining investment and exports.