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Oil limits to remain unchanged
( 2003-08-01 10:00) (China Daily)

OPEC oil producers yesterday looked set for a straightforward decision to keep output limits unchanged, supporting prices at over US$30 a barrel for US crude.

Ministers are due to meet at 13:00 local time following a business breakfast with representatives from non-OPEC countries Russia, Angola, Egypt, Oman and Syria.

Cartel President Abdullah al-Attiyah said on Wednesday any thoughts of tougher output restraints could wait at least until the group's next meeting on September 24.

Several other ministers have expressed the same opinion, content with oil prices near the top of their US$22-US$28 target range.

US crude in early electronic trade yesterday added 11 US cents to US$30.79 a barrel.

Some analysts think Iraq's slow progress in restoring post-war exports will allow OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) to leave supply limits in place at 25.4 million barrels a day for the rest of the year.

"If Iraq, as expected, stays under 1.5 million barrels per day, OPEC should have clear sailing for the rest of the year,'' said Gary Ross, chief executive of New York consultancy PIRA Energy.

"Prices will remain firm and inventories will stay relatively low leaving OPEC in good shape to address the more challenging environment next year when output cuts very likely will be necessary.''

Baghdad recently raised production to 1 million barrels per day (bpd) compared with pre-war capacity of 2.8 million bpd and is expected to export at least 650,000 bpd in August.

Attiyah said he had been told by Iraq's de facto oil minister Thamir Ghadhban that Baghdad could reach the 2 million bpd mark by the end of 2003.

Iraq was not represented at the meeting. OPEC is waiting for an internationally recognized Iraqi Government before an Iraqi representative is invited.

Cartel President Attiyah is due in Baghdad in September to meet the oil minister due to be appointed soon by Iraq's US-guided Governing Council.

 
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