As George Bush begins a state visit to Britain, tens of thousands of protesters get ready to march. They are likely to do more damage to Tony Blair than to his American friend.

London has seen plenty of drama over the centuries, but this week's events will surely earn a prominent place in the history books. On Tuesday November 18th, U.S. President George Bush arrived at Buckingham Palace for a three-day state visit, complete with red carpets, banquets and cannon salutes. Outside the palace gates, a huge security operation is under way. Some 5,000 British police officers are on hand to protect the president, along with the 700 or so secret-service agents Mr Bush brought with him. Certain parks and roads are blocked off, and snipers are visible on the royal rooftop.

The only other time an American president has stayed in Buckingham Palace was 85 years ago, when Woodrow Wilson joined King George V to toast the end of the first world war. This occasion promises to be rather different. Mr Bush's visit was first mooted after the September 11th attacks, and the planning began in earnest in the glow of American and British success in toppling Saddam Hussein in Iraq. But few Britons will welcome the president as a conquering hero. Despite Tony Blair’s unwavering support of the war, Britons generally opposed it. The war’s bloody aftermath, and the non-appearance of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, have done little to silence the shrillest anti-war voices. However, if the latest Guardian/ICM poll is to be believed, opposition to both the war and Mr Bush may be softening. Some 47% of respondents said the war was justified (against 41% who thought it was wrong) and more people welcomed the visit than thought he should have stayed at home.

Nevertheless, on Thursday tens of thousands are expected to march through London to show their opposition to Mr Bush. One anti-Bush campaigner has labelled him "the most unwelcome guest this country has ever received". It is not just Iraq that rankles. Nine Britons are caged up in Guantánamo Bay, an American military base in Cuba, having been captured in Afghanistan and Pakistan during America's anti-terrorist sweep. Mr Bush insists they are "non-combatants" and thus should be denied the usual legal protections (such as a lawyer). The president’s support of Israel, his repudiation of the International Criminal Court and his disregard for the Kyoto environmental accords have also riled Britons.

The rancour on the streets will do little damage to the bond between Mr Bush and Mr Blair. The prime minister insists that it is "exactly the right time" for his friend and ally to visit London. The two countries' "special relationship" does not, of course, preclude disagreements—Mr Blair would surely like America to improve its environmental record, stop ramping up steel tariffs and ensure fair trials for Guantánamo inmates. Nor do Britain and America always see eye to eye on the Middle East: Mr Blair would like Mr Bush to do more to encourage peace between Israelis and Palestinians, and to take a less belligerent line with the regime in Iran. But the two men agree strongly on the paramount issue of both their tenures—the morality of invading Iraq. Mr Blair recognises that America is by far the greatest power on earth, and he intends to preserve his ability to influence it behind the scenes. He therefore avoids the caustic expressions of difference that have characterised France and Germany’s relationships with America.

Still, both men will be watching how the pomp-filled visit plays out among their respective publics. Mr Bush should come off reasonably well: there has been much talk of anti-Bush sentiment in Britain, so few Americans will be shocked by the large protests that will snake through London. As for Mr Blair, who is already suffering in the opinion polls, his unapologetic closeness to Mr Bush could backfire. Britons will also be watching closely for any chance to criticise the delicate balancing act between the costly security operation and citizens' right to demonstrate. Protesters have demanded that police allow them close enough to the president so he can hear them—and, in a victory, they have been allowed to march past the prime minister's Downing Street residence while the two leaders huddle in a meeting. But even if the protesters' message penetrates Mr Bush's security cocoon, he will be paying much more attention to his faithful friend and his courteous royal hosts.

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