Assuming that the government will continue its current policy, the prediction is that China will export more agricultural products next year.

Exports of vegetables, fruits, aquatic products and livestock products will continue to increase in volume because of the advantage of lower prices and higher quality than the products of foreign competitors.

But imports of grain and rice will increase slightly.

Due to the declining output of grain and rice in China in the past four years, the country's reserves have dropped dramatically.

China should encourage the import of grain and rice in the coming years, while cutting down on export subsidies to local producers.

China must feed 22 per cent of the world's population with only 7 per cent of the world's arable land. The profit return on growing grain and rice is low, so China should increase the import and reduce the export of these crops.

Imports of cotton and oil-yielding plants will also increase, as the domestic supply cannot meet the demand.

The demand for cotton this coming year is expected to be 6.5 million tons, 1.6 million tons more than domestic production. Experts predict cotton imports will hit 1.4 million tons.

The domestic supply of edible oil cannot meet the demand either, with a shortfall of 6 million tons. Thus, imports of edible oil, soybeans and rapeseed will increase.

Statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture indicate that the export volume of agricultural products hit US$16.7 billion in the first 10 months of this year, an increase of 17.2 per cent year-on-year. On the other hand, imports of agricultural products were US$15.3 billion, up 56 per cent compared with figures for the same period last year.

Asia is still China's major exporting destination. The top five countries and regions are Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Malaysia and Indonesia.

Europe is the second export destination for China's agricultural products, with Germany on top, followed by Russia, the Netherlands, Britain and Italy.

South America and North America are major importers of Chinese agricultural products.

China's management systems and product standards are still lacking, which hampers foreign trade in many products.

Agricultural departments should establish a comprehensive system to guarantee product safety, focusing on four areas:

They should reinforce the hygienic quarantine system covering imported agricultural products, such as animals and plants, to ensure that no alien diseases or pests come to China.

A detailed regulation on labelling genetically modified food and plants should be promulgated. Government departments at all levels should strictly control such products to reduce the possibility of damage to the environment.

Also, exported agricultural products that have been genetically modified should strictly follow international labelling regulations.

They should set up a quota system for agricultural products and block excessive imports of soybean oil and rapeseed oil using the rules of the World Trade Organization against dumping and subsidies.

Customs officers should improve their management and work efficiency. Any smuggling of agricultural products should be strictly cracked down on.

They should establish associations and organizations for farmers to promote the systematic management of planting, transport, processing and trade in agricultural products.

In foreign trade, China's agricultural products always encounter problems in Japan, the United States and in European Union countries.

Those countries take advantage of technological measures, such as maximum residue limits (MRL), to throttle imports from China.

Every year, significantly large quantities of agricultural products from China are denied entry into these countries, because China's products have pesticide residue levels that are higher than they allow.

Therefore, China should gear up to international practices and establish comprehensive regulations covering all agricultural MRL, packaging, labelling and processing procedures.

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