Taiwan's Chen testing China's patience
(Reuters)
Updated: 2006-03-13 15:02

Beijing's patience with Taiwan's independence-leaning president could snap if the island adopts a new constitution, a senior Chinese adviser said.

President Chen Shui-bian scrapped a dormant but symbolic body and 15-year-old guidelines on unification last month, triggering condemnation from the mainland. But Beijing stopped short of repeating long-standing threats to attack the island if it formally declared statehood.

"Personally I think the mainland's reaction this time has been very measured and moderate," Xu Shiquan told Reuters at the weekend during the annual session of the top advisory body to parliament on which he sits.

China and Taiwan split at the end of a civil war in 1949, but Beijing still claims sovereignty over the self-ruled democratic island, which styles itself as the Republic of China.

China is in no hurry to reunify with Taiwan, but if the island's parliament or a referendum endorsed a new constitution involving a name change or other sovereignty issues, armed conflict would be unavoidable, the 63-year-old academic said.

"The mainland has patience now. We can wait. We can maintain the status quo for a period of time," Xu said.

"But we will be forced to war if the Legislative Yuan or a referendum approves a new constitution," he said, referring to the island's parliament.

Both scenarios are unlikely unless Chen's Democratic Progressive Party wins parliamentary elections next year. An alliance of opposition parties currently has a slim majority.

"WE ARE NOT JOKING"

Nonetheless, China expects Chen to push the envelope on formal statehood in the hope of provoking a "drastic response" from China, Xu said, adding that China would push hard for peaceful reunification.

Asked how China would respond if the United States were to intervene when the two sides were on the brink of conflict, Xu said China would no longer settle for the political status quo.

"The mainland will not agree to maintaining the status quo then. Talks will be on reunification ... We can't let Taiwan provoke us every day," said Xu, a leading mainland expert on Taiwan.

Washington recognises the mainland as China's sole legitimate government -- the "one-China" policy -- but it has also vowed to defend Taiwan in case of attack.

Xu saw Chen's move to scrap the unification council as an attempt to remain politically relevant for the rest of his second and last four-year term. He is due to step down in May 2008.

He said that if Chen's push for independence changed Taiwan's legal status as a part of China, that would violate the Anti-Secession Law. The law, passed by China's parliament last year, authorises war if the island declares independence.

China has alerted the United States, the United Nations, the European Union, Russia and Japan to the danger of Chen's latest move, Xu said, adding that the rest of the world should join hands and rein in Chen.

Chen would be grossly miscalculating if he thought China was a paper tiger, he said.
"We are not joking when we say we will never tolerate Taiwan independence and are not afraid of making any kind of sacrifice."