As predictable as the House vote may have been, the Senate was a study in unpredictability.
House and Senate negotiators were forced to reconvene Tuesday to remove a $19 billion tax on large banks and hedge funds, hoping to overcome objections from Sens. Scott Brown, Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe, all Republicans who voted for the Senate version last month.
Democrats inserted the tax late last week as they assembled a combined House-Senate bill, catching big banks by surprise. Brown was the first to complain and threatened to vote against the bill if the tax remained in the final measure.
Desperate to hold at least 60 votes to beat back procedural hurdles, House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd and Obama administration officials scrambled to drop the tax and devise another means of financing the bill's cost.
In the end, House and Senate negotiators, voting along party lines, agreed to pay for the bill with $11 billion generated by ending the unpopular Troubled Asset Relief Program — the $700 billion bank bailout created in the fall of 2008 at the height of the financial scare.
They also agreed to increase premium rates paid by commercial banks to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to insure bank deposits. The increase would not affect banks with assets under $10 billion.
On Wednesday, Collins issued a statement saying she was now inclined to vote for the bill.
But Brown remained uncommitted, saying he needed Congress' weeklong July 4 recess to examine the details of the bill. He did credit Dodd for "thinking outside the box" in finding an alternative.
Snowe late Wednesday said she, too, wanted to review the bill, but said that the last-minute change put the bill "in a much better position."
The American Bankers Association denounced the bill, and its president and CEO, Edward Yingling, vowed to continue to make the industry's case to the Senate.
"Many small banks are telling us they will simply have to sell out to larger institutions that have the staff to deal with the massive volume of new reports and rules," Yingling said in a statement.
The administration and House and Senate lawmakers have worked for more than a year to forge a bill. It has prompted a backlash from the financial industry and a populist cry from Congress to punish banks for the freewheeling practices that contributed to the 2008 meltdown.
The easy margin of victory in the House belied Frank's need to navigate the bill through the competing interests of New Yorkers, moderates and liberals. Frank, who will share the bill's official title with Dodd, credited Pelosi and the Democratic leadership for being "therapists, counselors, advisers — muscle when I needed it."
The legislation requires bank holding companies to spin off their derivatives business into self-funded subsidiaries. Banks would be allowed to keep less risky derivatives operations.
It sets new standards for what banks must keep in reserve to protect against losses, though lobbyists carved out a grandfather exception for banks with assets of less than $15 billion.
Commercial banks would not be permitted to trade in speculative investments, but they could invest no more than 3 percent of their capital in hedge funds and private equity funds.
At a consumer level, lenders would have to disclose more information and require proof that borrowers have the ability to pay off their mortgages. Even retail purchases would be affected — merchants could end up paying lower fees to banks for debit card purchases by their customers.