US-China relations in post-Obama era

By Chen Weihua (China Daily USA) Updated: 2016-11-04 08:34

Hawkish Clinton

Chinese are familiar with the Clintons, ever since first lady Hillary attended the United Nations Fourth Conference on Women in Beijing in 1995, and President Bill Clinton paid a nine-day state visit to China in 1998 during the Monica Lewinsky scandal. Their daughter Chelsea, also on the trip, was 18 at the time.

Many Chinese have had good feelings about both Clintons, but some took a different view of Hillary after she became secretary of state in 2009. They partly blamed her for the growing tension between China and its neighbors and between China and the US over the US rebalance to Asia strategy, of which she was an architect and strong supporter.

Many remember her remarks in Hanoi in June 2010 when she talked about US national interests in the South China Sea issue and tried to rally countries in the region against China. On her trip to Africa, she also described the Chinese activities there as neo-colonialism.

Like some Americans, many Chinese also regard Hillary as hawkish. She not only supported the invasion of Iraq in 2003, but was behind the regime change in Libya in 2011 by what China and Russia believe abusing a UN Security Council resolution on a no-fly zone. China, along with Russia, abstained in that vote but have since learned the hard lesson.

Libya has since turned into chaos and become a haven for ISIS. Many foreign policy experts argue that removing Muammar Gaddafi, who had given up nuclear weapons, makes it hard for the US to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear ambition.

Douglas Paal, vice-president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and director of its Asia program, said that Clinton has shown hawkish instincts on Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. He described President Barack Obama's instinct as "more of a dovish" despite his escalation of drone strikes and backtracking on troop withdrawals from Iraq and Afghanistan.

"That said, Hillary is not the kind of hawk people should fear that leads to war. When she dealt with China as secretary of state, she was pretty clear-eyed, clear-headed. She tried to be very constructive with China," said Paal, a Republican who served in the administrations of Ronald Reagan and President Bush Sr and Jr.

But he described Clinton's speech in Hanoi in 2010 as "poorly advised," saying she could have taken a stand that was more moderate.

Li of Brookings campaigned for Clinton in her failed 2008 presidential race. He said that Chinese who have regarded Clinton as someone who has wanted to contain China have misunderstood her. He cited Clinton's critical role in ensuring a US pavilion in the Shanghai Expo 2010 and in helping launch the 100,000 Strong Initiative to send US students to China. "That is not something someone who wanted to contain China would do," Li said.

The Clinton presidential campaign has a team that is knowledgeable about China. People like former National Security Advisor Tom Donilon and former Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg, a China hand, are among her advisors.

Li believes there will be a continuation of Obama's China policy if Clinton is elected on Nov 8, citing the more than 90 dialogue mechanisms between the two governments. But he also believes Clinton will be tougher on trade, human rights and security issues than Obama has been.

The most significant of the 90-plus mechanisms include the annual Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED), to which Clinton headed the US delegation while secretary of state, as well as the Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade (JCCT), which will meet in Washington late this month.

"Hillary knows more about China than Obama. At the same time, she will stress more about the US leadership role," Li said, adding that Obama is more aware of the changing world and that a unipolar world has come to an end.

Most Chinese didn't know much Trump before he started his 2016 campaign, except in his role in the TV series The Apprentice and his wealth. But books about Trump are now widely available in Chinese bookstores.

Trump has blasted China repeatedly at rallies and in debates, accusing China of currency manipulation and taking away American jobs and threatening to slap a 45 percent tariff on Chinese imports, something he has not mentioned lately.

Unlike Clinton, Trump's foreign policy team is still little known. But he has expressed his willingness to meet North Korea leader Kim Jong-un, his hope to mend ties with Russia and get along with everybody. His tone of being less of an interventionist is appealing to many Chinese who have long disliked excessive US interventionism.

Ted Carpenter, a senior fellow of defense and foreign policy at the Cato Institute, predicted that China-US relations are likely to be more difficult under a Trump or Clinton administration than they have been under Obama.

He also cited the examples of Trump's complaints of China-US trade relations, his receptivity to US allies in East Asia acquiring nuclear weapons, and Clinton's speech in Hanoi in 2010. "So both individuals would take hard lines toward China, although in somewhat different ways," said Carpenter, who said he would vote for neither candidate.