How the security landscape changed in 2008

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By Xiong Guangkai (China Daily)
Updated: 2009-01-08 07:41

Last year stood out as an unusual one with the international security situation going through numerous complicated changes.

These changes fall into three principal categories.

First, while peace and development remain the themes of the times with the international situation generally staying stable, the insecurity, instability and uncertainties have decidedly increased with some areas experiencing fresh chaos and even war.

Second, the traditional threats to security and the non-traditional threats are becoming increasingly intertwined. While the traditional threats remain grave, the non-traditional ones are fast stretching to cover such sectors as climate, food, energy, economy, finance and terrorism. The most visible one is the international crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis.

Third, the above-mentioned developments have driven various countries to give more weight to international dialogue and cooperation in dealing with diversified security issues.

While the armed forces of all the major powers are devoting great efforts to catch up with the revolution in military affairs and lift their combat capability under information-centric conditions, greater importance has been attached to building up the capability of executing military operations other than war for the sake of dealing with various threats to security.

Last year was likewise quite an unusual year for China's national security situation. China was not only hit by the powerful tsunami of international financial crisis, but was also nagged by such problems as "Taiwan independence" and "Tibet independence" as well as the troubles incited by the "East Turkistan" terrorist forces. And these came after the atrocious damage and heavy losses inflicted by the snowstorms and the fatal earthquake.

Traditional security issues refer to security threats related to national sovereignty, territorial integrity, political stability and the like, all of which belong to the political and military domains.

Three prominent changes of traditional security issues were reflected last year: First, there were more frequent eruptions of local wars and armed conflicts; second, the international military competition with the new revolution in military affairs as the centerpiece got fiercer with each passing day; third, the situation of nuclear proliferation and armament control continued to be grim.

Last year saw the eruption of about 50 local wars and armed conflicts worldwide, showing a sharp jump from 33 the previous year. The Middle East and South Asia were the two regions where relatively more local wars and armed conflicts flared up. The Afghanistan War staged by the US in 2001 and the Iraq War in 2003 are unable to wind up to this day.

What merits attention is that an armed conflict broke out between Russia and Georgia on Aug 8 over the South Ossetia issue. The Russia-Georgia conflict popped up against the strategic backdrop of Russia rapidly recovering national strength and the US and Europe pushing forward with their drive of eastward expansion. This gave the conflict a deeper strategic background of geopolitics and complicated historical roots.

At the same time, the new round of revolution in military affairs with informationization as the centerpiece is unfolding for various major powers and in the midst of constant adjustments. All the major powers are progressively increasing their input in military outlay.

Going parallel with this is the development of the strategic nuclear force by major world powers. The US-Russia rivalry centering on the deployment of the missile defense system continues to develop.

Furthermore, the major powers continue to deepen the military reform. In a nutshell, a new round of international arms race with quality building as the centerpiece is in full swing.

Besides, the nuclear issues in the Korean Peninsula and Iran remain grave challenges in the international security sector, the nuclear proliferation sector in particular.

At the third meeting of the chief negotiators of the sixth round of Six-Party Talks last December, consensus was arrived at on some issues. And yet it fell short of reaching an agreement on verifying the nuclear declaration list submitted by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. The failure indicates that numerous difficulties remain to be overcome before the ultimate settlement of the issue. Worse still, even backslides cannot be ruled out.

The Iran nuclear issue remains deadlocked. The US and Europe bypassed the UN Security Council to impose a number of sanctions on Iran in an attempt to force Iran to give up nuclear development but of no avail. On its part, Iran has been playing both hard and soft tactics to deal with the US and Europe in an endeavor to win more time for its nuclear development.

So far, peaceful settlement of the Iran nuclear issue remains the primary choice of the international community and the door for negotiation has not been closed and yet the possibility of deterioration cannot be ruled out.

China pursues an independent foreign policy of peace and has made positive contributions to seeking for peaceful solutions to international conflicts and to promoting measures to control nuclear proliferation and arms race.

However, the complete reunification of China is yet to be achieved, and therefore obliges us to fight against traditional security issues like secession and subversion.

Non-traditional security issues have been there for a long time. Aside from terrorism, non-traditional threats to security last year spilled over to such sectors as finance, energy, grain, climate, food, public health and many others, thus producing increasingly noticeable impact on the security of China.

The current international financial crisis is spreading rapidly and is standing out to be the most prominent security issue. The US and the European countries have hammered out financial bailout plans worth trillions of US dollars in total, with their effects still unknown.

The Chinese government has decided to invest $586 billion from October 2008 to the end of 2010 to expand domestic demand. China must make a proper estimate of the difficulty ahead and deal with it meticulously and in a down-to-earth way.

Despite the headway made in the global fight against terrorism, the situation in the fight against it remains grim and challenging. As of the end of last October, terrorist attacks worldwide totaled 898, taking a toll of 4,800 plus lives, wounding 8,400-odd more people, and showing a 17.7 percent increase against the corresponding period of 2007. South Asia has projected itself to be the "hotbed" and the "region of frequent incidents of international terrorist attacks".

The threat of terrorist attack in China too recorded an upward trend - the "Tibetan independence" secessionist forces committed violent crimes of beating, smashing, looting and burning in March, 2008; the "East Turkistan" terrorist forces launched four consecutive violent terrorist attacks in Xinjiang; the Chinese institutions and personnel functioning abroad are faced with mounting real threats of terrorist attacks.

The violent fluctuation of the international oil price has put the energy security issue under the spotlight. The sharp fluctuation of the international oil price has set off fiercer contention among the countries concerned over oil producing areas and shipping passages.

China's fast economic development has overshadowed the availability of its own oil and gas resources, making the upholding of energy security especially important. Thus, securing steady supply of overseas oil and coping properly with the challenge of energy security has become a vital strategic issue for maintaining sustained development in China.

The grain security issue is looming larger as a result of the increased international grain price. The grain supply in the international market is getting tighter in recent two years.

China's grain security is basically ensured thanks to its over 95 percent of self-sufficiency. Nevertheless, we should be mindful of possible danger, because China's annual net import of grain stands at 50 billion tons at present and the dependency on import is still on the rise. Therefore, the country cannot afford to neglect grain security .

Security issues like climate change, food and public health are also looming large.

Non-traditional security issues are trans-national and global in nature. Therefore, it is beyond a single nation's capability to tackle the problems at their source.

China has been using bilateral and multilateral diplomacy to play an important role in a whole range of international cooperation in dealing with the non-traditional issues. These are crucial to safeguarding China's security, and to fostering its image as a responsible major power.

The author is chairman of China Institute for International Strategic Studies

(China Daily 01/08/2009 page9)