OPINION> Commentary
Only a Mideast peace deal can end Gaza strife
By Ming Jing (China Daily)
Updated: 2009-01-09 07:39

The eyes of the world are on the escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Days into 2009, the ground invasion by Israel on the Gaza Strip following more than a week of air raids on the coastal enclave inflamed the conflicts and dragged the region into a deeper quagmire.

The death toll of Palestinians is more than 600, with at least a quarter of them civilians - by far the bloodiest episode in the decades-old conflicts between Israel and Palestinians.

Aid groups have warned of a dire humanitarian crisis in Gaza, where water, food and medical supplies were running short.

Tuesday's carnage by Israeli shells of 42 people, including women and children sheltering in a United Nations-run school in the Jabalya refugee camp, intensified international outrage and pressure on Israel to call a halt.

Israel defended the attacks as a response to Hamas' decision to end a six-month ceasefire on Dec 19 and launch rockets into southern Israel. During that time, Hamas built up and improved its arsenal of weapons; its mortars and rockets are now capable of reaching territory that is inhabited by more than 700,000 Israelis, according to Yin Gang, a researcher in Middle East affairs at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

The Bush administration has supported Israel, saying Hamas had to halt rocket fire at Israel for a truce to take shape.

Hamas stepped up its rocket attacks to escalate its confrontation with Israel, censuring the blockade on Gaza imposed by Israel in the wake of Hamas' takeover of the territory 18 months ago. And, as Hamas is the governing authority in Gaza, the hardships were taking a toll on its reputation, which was Israel's intention.

"Israel's campaign in Gaza against Hamas may succeed militarily," said Hua Liming, former Chinese ambassador to Iran. "But it could also backfire. Either way, the political consequences could reverberate throughout the Middle East, and test the ability of US president-elect Barack Obama and his team to prepare for whatever faces them in this immediate crisis."

With its ground incursion into Gaza, Israel has gambled that it can finally silence the Hamas rockets.

Experts stressed there is indication that the Israeli government has war aims that go beyond inflicting serious damage to the Hamas military machine.

Facing a parliamentary election in a month, Israeli leaders want to show the public the campaign in Gaza has met that objective.

This time, Israel seems to have prepared better to ward off the military and political catastrophe of its incursion in Lebanon in 2006. By all appearances its forces were following a methodical campaign of strikes, even as it tried to win the propaganda war.

But Israel's attacks also could backfire, and history suggests that as the more likely scenario.

The supposed primary objective of the operation - to stop Hamas launching rockets on Israeli towns - is far from being achieved. The rocket attacks against Israel - as many as 60 a day - continue.

The images of carnage could only fuel new hatreds and radicalize some who felt that peace talks offer more hope than resistance.

Worse, despite targeting the Hamas security infrastructure, Israel's assault has taken a huge toll on civilians.

Unlike in other wars, where populations run out of the conflict zone and refugee crises develop, Gazans have nowhere to go.

Long before Israel's latest offensive, the strip had been locked up from all sides, with no access to the outside world.

Palestinians in Gaza ventured outside to shop for food during a three-hour lull in fighting on Wednesday. Israel said it would now implement it daily to facilitate a flow of aid to the territory.

"Food and milk - what else can we hope for in three hours," said Ahmed Abu Kamel, a father of six.

"Hamas as an institution is not really sustaining casualties," said Hua Liming. "The people of Gaza are the ones who are paying the price."

The further and longer the Israeli incursion, the more the casualties mount. The destruction will highlight divisions and fuel instability in the region.

Israel has made it clear that it is in no rush for a diplomatic solution, but history of its conflict with Hamas suggests that there will have to be one.

Analysts expect that some sort of negotiated ceasefire with Hamas is inevitable, since Israel seems neither willing nor able to reoccupy Gaza and replace its leadership.

"There are two ways to deal with Hamas," said Yin Gang. "Either confront them, which makes them more extreme, or accept them in the political process."

The Jewish state reportedly agreed with the "principles" of a US-brokered Egyptian deal and would send an envoy to Cairo to discuss details of how it might be put into practice.

Israelis might prefer to forget the history. But what was true then is true today: it would be unrealistic to think there is a Gaza, or a Hamas, solution without a coherent and real Palestinian peace strategy.

Due to their historical and present grudges and grievances, neither the Israelis nor the Palestinians can resolve the problem on their own.

The crisis in the region is a challenge for the international community, Israel's allies in particular.

The latest crisis came on the eve of the handover of the US presidency.

Analysts say Israel may face a deadline to wrap up its campaign by the time Obama is sworn in on Jan 20, or risk a strain in ties with Washington at the beginning of the new administration.

If so, Obama, who has raised expectations of a change in policy in the Middle East, will be able to capitalize on the cease-fire to move quickly to revive Israeli-Palestinian peace talks and renew a push for a permanent settlement in a way that increases the chances for negotiating a broad regional peace.

The mediation can work only when it takes into account the demands and principles of both Israelis and Palestinians.

That means ensuring the rocket fire from Hamas is halted permanently and that it can no longer restock its arsenal with more weapons via hundreds of tunnels dug under the Egypt-Gaza border. Meanwhile, the political settlement should include lifting of Israel's embargo between Israel and Gaza, and most importantly, giving hope to Palestinians that they will achieve the statehood they crave.

Feuds are easy to start and hard to end.

The Middle East conflict has taken far too great a toll already.

There is no time to lose. Violence is a dangerous fuse that could set off a new round of hate and distrust.

The tit-for-tat strategy has never found them peace.

(China Daily 01/09/2009 page9)