Cooperation, friction to continue with Japan

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By Liang Yunxiang (China Daily)
Updated: 2009-03-02 07:44

Of late, the political atmosphere in Japan has been turbulent. The reason is that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) only controls the House of Representatives, while the opposition parties have a majority in the House of Councilors.

The LDP's rule and its capability to implement policies is severely impaired.

Prime Minister Taro Aso has chalked up no major achievements in social reform, economic recovery, and other issues of concern to the Japanese public. Scandals involving cabinet members from the LDP have also been exposed.

The popularity rate of the Aso cabinet has taken a severe beating. According to the latest telephone survey, the Aso cabinet's approval rating has plunged to a record low of 13.4 percent.

Japanese politics has been unstable ever since Shinzo Abe was made Prime Minister in September 2006. When Aso was sworn in, he also vowed to lead the LDP out of its plight. After a few months, however, his leadership was widely challenged. Facing the current financial crisis, he is unable to formulate effective measures, putting the Japanese economy on the wane again.

According to cabinet statistics published on Feb 16, the Japanese economy suffered negative growth in 2008, the first time in nine years. On the same day, Kaoru Yosano, the Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister, acknowledged, "Japan is facing the severest economic crisis since World War II."

In this milieu, the ruling authority of the LDP administration, with its continuously plunging support, is at stake. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), the largest opposition party, is determined to defeat the LDP.

According to the election deadline stipulated by the Japanese Election Law, the general election of the House of Representatives must be held before September.

Judging by its current performance in polls, the Aso-led LDP administration is very likely to lose. Therefore, for both the ruling party and the opposition parties, strife will emerge in the coming months, and Japanese politics will remain on shaky ground.

The question is, how is Japanese political turbulence affecting Sino-Japanese relations?

Sino-Japanese ties entered a new stage in the second half of the 1990s. China and Japan are two comprehensive powers in East Asia. The rapid development of China and the conservative trend of Japanese politics have resulted in more conflict and friction in bilateral relations. These include frictions on historical issues, territory disputes, ideology, alliances, regional cooperation and UN reform.

The frictions occur periodically. On Thursday, Aso said that the Diaoyu Islands fall in the territory of Japan, and they fall into the defense area of the US-Japanese alliance.

China, which has sovereignty over the islands since ancient times, naturally expressed its strong dissatisfaction. Actually Aso made the remarks in response to a question by the DPJ on Thursday morning concerning the islands in order to win future votes.

However, the common interests and responsibilities between China and Japan are also increasing. Besides close bilateral economic ties, China and Japan share more common interests and responsibilities in global and regional issues, such as environment, energy, terrorism and regional security.

Thus despite structural conflicts, which are hard to resolve quickly, political leaders from both sides have realized the fragility of bilateral relations and the significance for the pair and the whole East Asian region to maintain peaceful and stable Sino-Japanese ties.

When bilateral relations were on the ebb between 2001 and 2006, to the extent that a direct conflict was possible, Chinese and Japanese leaders managed to exchange several visits, and began to seek "strategic and mutually beneficial relations".

Within this new framework, something of a dtente has appeared between the two countries.

The turbulence of Japanese politics will not affect Sino-Japanese relations too much, at least not in a negative way. That is because the problems in Japanese politics are a result of domestic problems, while the policy of the Japanese administration to improve its relations with China has obtained a rather wide base in the government and the public.

As all stratums of Japanese society understand China's importance, a consensus exists among most Japanese politicians and citizens to stabilize relations. Regardless of whether the Aso cabinet or even the LDP remains in office following the next poll, little will change in Sino-Japanese relations.

Aso and the LDP will at least maintain the already improving trajectory. Before the general election, of course, they will not put forth bold measures to promote relations, and may even take opportunistic actions to exploit Sino-Japanese relations, like Aso's recent remarks on the Diaoyu Islands, to try to boost the popularity rate of the LDP.

Even if the DPJ ascends to power, it is hard to imagine a fundamental change in bilateral relations. The DPJ has no obvious difference with the LDP in political ideology and in its understanding of national interests.

Of course, the change of the Japanese Prime Minister and the ruling party may bring a few differences in some specific issues or measures to deal with China. For example, the personal style of the Prime Minister and his attitude toward China, as well as the distinctive perceptions of the LDP and the DPJ on historical issues, will affect ties in the short term.

The general framework of bilateral relations, however, will not change. In the distant future, China and Japan will maintain a relationship, with interests and conflicts, and competition and cooperation.

The author is a professor of international relations at Peking University

(China Daily 03/02/2009 page4)