Japan paper adds to worries

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By Wu Huaizhong (China Daily)
Updated: 2009-07-28 07:52

On July 17, the Japanese cabinet approved the White Paper on Defense for 2009 in a meeting. As usual, the content of the 427-page paper was roughly the same as that of the preceding year. The few new points, from which people can easily detect the "special" policy messages, cover mainly two aspects. First, while focusing on playing up the "threat" from the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) and China, it emphasizes the complexity and hazards of the surrounding security environment. Second, it goes all out to promote the legitimacy and need for adjusting the defense policy of Japan.

On the first aspect, it deliberately exaggerates two major "threats". The white paper remains almost unchanged when describing international situation and the national defense policy of other countries, but devotes considerable space to drawing a grim picture of the security situation in northeast Asia.

On the Korean peninsula, the paper notes that the nuclear tests and missile test-launches by DPRK may pose a "grave threat" to Japan. It said that the DPRK might have "very likely" made progress on its nuclear weapons project through the test in May. Thus, it "cannot rule out a possibility that Pyongyang could achieve the miniaturization of nuclear weapons and put them in warheads in a short term". Meanwhile, the missile launches in April showed that Pyongyang might have progressed in its long-range ballistic missiles. Moreover, the white paper makes a rare mention of DPRK leader Kim Jong-il's health problem, saying Pyongyang's system would be destabilized if its power structure underwent changes in the near future.

On China, the white paper touches mainly on three points.

First, the development of China's armed forces, especially the air and naval forces. It says that Beijing has begun to acquire capabilities beyond that required for preventing the "independence" of Taiwan, and is extending its naval activity scope beyond its adjacent waters. It also expressed concerns on China's R&D on building aircraft carriers.

Second is the reference to China's naval activities in waters near Japan. For the first time, the white paper carries illustrative graphics to demonstrate the routes taken by Chinese naval vessels into the Pacific Ocean through the Tsugaru Strait, for the first time last October; through waters between the Ryukyu main island and Miyako Island last November, and, the numerous voyages of China's marine research vessels to waters near the Diaoyu Islands last December which "were forbidden by the international law".

Third, the white paper said the cross-Straits military balance is becoming more conducive to the Chinese mainland.

On the second aspect - of Japan's own defense policy and forces - the white paper indicated three new trends. For the first time, it put forward the idea of space exploration and use as well as a maritime policy. In a newly-added chapter, it suggested some concrete measures, such as developing early-warning satellites and formulating a "maritime basic plan" in order to counter developments in northeast Asia.

Second, for the first time, the paper stressed the need in formulating a permanent law on sending defense troops overseas. The Japanese Diet passed an anti-piracy law in June to further relax restrictions on the Self-Defense Forces' use of weaponry. The law also extended the scope of the objects of protection when carrying out missions, because Japan needs to "positively shoulder international responsibilities", i.e. sending troops overseas.

Third, in an unprecedented move, it noted that as the Japanese national defense budget has been declining for seven consecutive years in comparison to China's growth for 21 straight years, Japan should consider increasing its budget and expanding the size of its self-defense forces.

To some extent, Japan's stress on two major "threats" is a reaction to security changes in its neighborhood. For example, DPRK's nuclear test and missile launch have created a stir in Japan. In addition, China's remarkable achievements since 2008, such as hosting the Olympic Games in Beijing, dealing successfully with the financial crisis and its GDP being ranked No 3 in the world, also pose unprecedented challenges to Japan.

Japan is adept at taking advantage of so-called external crisis to promote its defense strategy adjustment. Of a piece with this, are the four clear aims set out in the white paper: to increase the defense budget and expand the scale of the Self-Defense Forces; to expand strategic security space and occupy commanding military heights; to send troops overseas at any time so as to enhance its international identity by engaging in international security affairs with military means; and, to balance and guard against China in the security sphere.

However, the broader historic background behind these measures cannot be ignored. Pursuing a role of global political and military power has become Japan's overall national strategy in the 21st century. To perform this self-delineated "national role", Japan is readjusting its defense policy and forces by citing the excuse of international and surrounding security changes, and thereby justifying the increased share of military elements in its foreign strategy.

As such, Japan appears eager to move away from its current pacifist road following the end of WWII and proceed on the path of a political and military power. The problem is, these measures will create new pressures and challenges to China in its security environment, and accordingly add worries to us.

The author is a researcher at the Institute of Japanese Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

(China Daily 07/28/2009 page8)