From Overseas Press

What Asian century?

(chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2011-06-02 15:16

Although the 21st century has been widely predicted as the "Asian century", it is now looking increasingly as if the rising continent is in fact in the last stage of "economically outperforming the rest of the world," asserts Philip Bowring in an op-ed piece in the International Herald Tribune on May 17.

According to the article, the common assumption that the Chinese success - modeled after Japan, South Korea and Taiwan – will naturally be followed by an Indian one, thereby pushing Asia to its rightful place, is too simple. "Rich Asia, middle-income Asia and poor Asia all face huge problems," warns the author, and Asia cannot maintain its leadership in economic growth rates much past the next decade. Indeed, the future of Asia should not be gauged against its more recent past, "but in light of the problems it faces and the economic potential of other regions."

First, Asia, especially its rich part, has to deal with demographic challenges - while the West is also facing an aging population, its fertility rates are higher and the demographic change has been less abrupt, and later retirement is also gaining currency in the West, which means "the West's relative economic decline should be slower than that of East Asia."

Then, middle-income Asia, namely China and Southeast Asia, has to address the endemic corruption problem, pollution and climate change, those so-called issues of "good governance", and help bridge a widening income gap, two qualities deemed essential by the Asian Development Bank to propel countries like China to top-tier status, the article explains.

Finally, the poor human resources management in South Asia, which will account for roughly half of the continent's population and which will increasingly carry "the burden of overall Asian growth", means Asia can hardly reap the "demographic dividend" of a more youthful population, Bowring argues.

Overall, he admits, "Asia still has lots of promise," and no one is denying the possibility the 21st century will become the "Asian century". However, Bowring concludes, it is time to stop talking about it "before it has arrived and focus on what is needed to make it a reality."