The multilateral debate in climate negotiations is over the role of energy in human well-being, patterns of resource use and how the post-1992 Earth Summit "economic realities" should be recognized with respect to emissions reduction: rapid economic growth in some developing countries or the persistence of widespread poverty.

The strategic issue for developing countries now is whether to amend the climate treaty by transitioning, or graduating, to mitigation commitments that are symmetrically binding for all Parties, or instead to bring the needs of the planet and those of the poor into a single mutually reinforcing framework.

According to recent analyses, because of the scientific uncertainty associated with emission rates and concentration targets, what really matters is the total greenhouse gas budget we allow ourselves. The shared vision of the Cancun Agreements also recognizes the substantial opportunities that would be created by a paradigm shift towards building a low-carbon society and equitable access to sustainable development, rather than merely considering environmental damage.

We now have to go beyond the current approach based on assessing and managing risks posed by pollutants. An analysis of trends since 1992 shows that the annual meetings of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change have only led to new institutional arrangements, expert groups and workshops serving to solve political problems, for example, breaking the unity of the developing countries, rather than the problem itself.

As part of the reappraisal of current approaches, a new poverty index recently developed by the United Nations stresses lack of services, such as electricity, as a key factor in determining poverty. Access to electricity for 'basic human needs' is the level that is commonly used for forecasts of emissions growth in developing countries from universal energy access.

Consequently, the International Energy Agency assumes that 1.4 billion rural poor without access to electricity - although the United Nations Development Program proposes a much larger number - will each need only 100 kilowatt hours a year - a floor fan, two compact fluorescent bulbs and a radio for about five hours each day - which would, therefore, increase developing country emissions by 3 percent till 2050.

However, some argue that this figure is too low, and the aim should be to achieve a higher per capita electricity use - equivalent to a mid-level developed country like Spain, with an annual average of 5,000 kwh - for the 4-5 billion rural poor that will move to urban areas, enabling productive uses, such as the development of industry and infrastructure needed for the eradication of poverty.

While there is no common understanding of how the resulting increased emissions from developing countries will be accommodated in the transition to sustainable development, it is clear that a peak in carbon dioxide emissions will depend on shifts in patterns of resource use in developed countries and the availability of innovative energy technologies in developing countries.

There is also no agreement among countries on the policies needed to establish a global regime to accelerate the sharing of innovative technologies. Internationally spurring green technological development will require a wider mix of public sector strategies, which guarantee a commercial incentive substantial enough to enable private parties through the use of subsidies and public purchases of technology at reasonable cost in their research undertakings, while constraining monopolistic practices which restrict diffusion and further development. Public policy tools could include global funding for research, to be placed in the public domain for widespread dissemination under the same modality utilized in the green revolution in food agriculture in the 1960s and 1970s.

Where exclusive private-sector rights of use to vital technology are a hindrance to the development of other needed technology or to widespread use, the technology regime must have a mechanism for granting a "compulsory license" that places such technology in the public domain.

As developing countries are taking the lead in emissions reduction, climate change is now synonymous with sustainable development, considering both environmental damage and social transformations. Therefore, sharing innovative energy and agriculture technology should be considered global goods, along with carbon budgets to reduce concentrations of greenhouse gases.

A global agreement that patterns of resource use must be common for all citizens will also promote greater coherence among the disparate entities of the multilateral system - for example, the United Nations, World Trade Organization, International Monetary Fund - whose common objective is to support the transition to global sustainable development.

The author is a visiting professor at the University of International Business and Economics, Beijing.

(China Daily 11/21/2011 page8)