RBS forecasts no massive stimulus in China
Updated: 2012-10-01 14:34
(Xinhua)
|
||||||||
BEIJING -- China's economy will post a 7.5-8 percent growth this year and next year, with policy easing but no game-changing stimulus package, according to a forecast by the Royal Bank of Scotland.
China's gross domestic product value will expand by 7.5 percent in 2012and 7.8 percent in 2013 in a global base scenario that features a prolonged period of slow growth, said RBS chief China economist Louis Kuijs in an emailed analysis note.
That projection assumes more support from an increasingly pro-growth policy stance but no major stimulus package that could turn the cycle around by itself, Kuijs noted.
"We expect policy easing to continue, but to remain constrained by a somewhat higher tolerance for lower growth among senior leaders and the perceived side effects of the 2008-2010 stimulus as well as the leadership transition," he said, referring to the new central leadership of China's ruling party that will be elected during the forthcoming 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.
Authorities will announce more cuts in the reserve requirement ratio, or the amount of deposits lenders must set aside, and another reduction in interest rates, Kuijs predicted.
Further approval of infrastructure projects is also expected, he said.
Slowing property investment and flagging exports cooled China's economic growth to 7.6 percent in the second quarter of this year, the slowest rate since the first quarter of 2009.
Chinese authorities have moved more cautiously to address the downturn than they did in response to the global financial crisis of 2008, when a 4-trillion-yuan stimulus investment plan pumped up the Chinese economy but resulted in massive local government debt and set back efforts to restructure the economy toward a more consumption-driven model.
This time, China has reduced interest rates steadily, cut taxes for small businesses, encouraged private businesses to invest in sectors previously closed to them and fast-tracked construction projects.
- Relief reaches isolated village
- Rainfall poses new threats to quake-hit region
- Funerals begin for Boston bombing victims
- Quake takeaway from China's Air Force
- Obama celebrates young inventors at science fair
- Earth Day marked around the world
- Volunteer team helping students find sense of normalcy
- Ethnic groups quick to join rescue efforts
Most Viewed
Editor's Picks
Supplies pour into isolated villages |
All-out efforts to save lives |
American abroad |
Industry savior: Big boys' toys |
New commissioner
|
Liaoning: China's oceangoing giant |
Today's Top News
Health new priority for quake zone
Xi meets US top military officer
Japan's boats driven out of Diaoyu
China mulls online shopping legislation
Bird flu death toll rises to 22
Putin appoints new ambassador to China
Japanese ships blocked from Diaoyu Islands
Inspired by Guan, more Chinese pick up golf
US Weekly
Beyond Yao
|
Money power |