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1t yuan in new loans in Jan may trigger reserve ratio hike

Updated: 2011-02-09 14:37

By Song Jingli (chinadaily.com.cn)

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New yuan-denominated loans in China may have exceeded 1.1 trillion yuan($167.09 billion) in January, and some analysts say the central bank is likely to raise the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) in February, the Shanghai Securities News reported Tuesday.

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If the new loans cap for this year is 7.5 trillion yuan, loans in January may have amounted to between 900 billion and 1.3 trillion yuan as banks tend to use about 13 to 18 percent of the full-year credit quota in the first month of the year, according to an Orient Securities report. However, because of the window guidance of the central bank and the hike of the reserve effective as of Jan 20, banks slowed down their lending spree late that month. Orient Securities estimated new yuan-denominated loans last month hit 1.1 trillion yuan, compared to 1.39 trillion yuan in January 2010.

Analysts said the growth of bank loans as part of financing should shift to a more normal state , and should be in line with targets of economic development. Banks extended 9.6 trillion yuan new yuan-denominated loans in 2009 and 7.95 trillion yuan in 2010, each of which exceeded the corresponding cap set by the People's Bank of China, the central bank.

Banks may tighten lending in February, analysts predicted.

Possibility of another hike of the reserve requirement ratio cannot be ruled out despite the central bank raising interest rates by 0.25 percent on Feb 8. Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, predicted it may occur as early as this month.

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