Great powers more likely to cooperate

Updated: 2012-07-19 10:54

By Chu Zhaogen (China Daily)

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There has been vigorous debate recently about whether we should be optimistic or pessimistic about the future of Sino-US relations.

The offensive realism structured by John Mearsheimer, a well-known international relations theorist, suggests that the great powers are likely to seek hegemony. Hence, he never hesitates to propose that the United States should be alert to the threat of China's rise. He contends China will definitely continue to rise, but does not believe that it will do so peacefully. He predicts that foreign relations among the East Asian countries and those between China and the US will become more tense and dangerous, and become the real challenge to the US in the next few years.

Wang Jisi, director of the Center for International and Strategic Studies at Peking University, and Ken Lieberthal, director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution, both hold a similar pessimistic attitude. They co-wrote a paper, "Addressing US-China Strategic Distrust", which recognizes that Sino-US relations have not embarked on a favorable road.

"The major concern is that it appears as of 2012 that strategic distrust is growing on both sides and that this perception can, if it festers, create a self-fulfilling prophecy of overall mutual antagonism," they warn.

But the assessment of the three prominent strategists, that there must be antagonism between China and the US, is not the reality.

On the contrary, I am optimistic about the trend of the Sino-US relations. The strategic distrust between China and the US is certain to grow while the latter implements the policy of "back to Asia", but we should not forget the many unprecedented efforts to deepen and widen mutual trust. These include strategic and economic dialogue and direct military communication.

The security dilemma of the great powers is the undisputable reality. But we should remember that we are all involved in an age of global interdependence, prospering or declining as a whole.

When a country seeks security and power now, it is impossible to get beyond its core national interests to gain unilateral advantages.

Sober realists on both sides understand the rule: smart politicians always try to pursue modest and appropriate power. No country can expect to gain from Sino-US conflict.

There is economic friction, ideological differences and the strategic military distrust between China and the US, but China is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the globalization, led and dominated by the US.

Regardless of cost and consequences, why would China want to change this while it is getting the benefits? In history, China has rarely expanded and invaded other countries.

Since 1949, Beijing has settled 17 of its 23 territorial disputes. In most, it has offered significant compromises, usually receiving less than 50 percent of the contested land. Taylor Fravel, associate professor at MIT, testified before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, stating: "China has not used its armed forces to actively enforce its claims." Nor has it invented new claims to match its growing wealth and power.

Would China necessarily pursue hegemony or challenge the US if China is well developed? Considering the difficulty China faces with its own reform and transition, it will experience serious inner conflict and radical adjustment. The challenges from inside are much heavier than those from outside.

I, and quite a number of analysts, believe that it is impossible for China to challenge the US' hegemony within the next 100 years. As Vice-President Xi Jinping, said on his visit to the US: China and the US have no choice but to cooperate with each other.

As China cannot pose a threat to the US until the distant future, why would the US wish to force China into challenging it earlier? These are the two biggest economies in the world. It would be fatal if their antagonism affected the global economy and development, not forgetting that they are both nuclear powers and Security Council permanent members.

Sino-US confrontation would not only paralyze the biggest political and international organizations, such as the United Nations, the inevitable result of an all-out confrontation, like the Cold War, would be a lose-lose one. Recognizing this, US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton, recently said of Sino-US relations: "The goal for our relationship with China is to ensure that we defy history. It has never happened that an established power and a rising power have been able to find a way to not only coexist, but cooperate we intend to make history with our relationship with China."

The author is a researcher with the China Center for Public Policy Studies at Fudan University.

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