In the 19th century, Britain was the growth engine of the world, and Britons had a relatively high per capita GDP. In the postwar era, the US was the strongest nation, while Americans were the most prosperous people on average. As global growth will be driven by the BRIC economies, the most powerful countries will no longer be the most prosperous.

As long as growth can be sustained in the advanced and emerging economies, all nations can benefit. That is the win-win story. But for that, we need a globalization that is more inclusive in kind.

Economically, the epicenter of the global crisis was the financial sector in the West. In the future, it should pay for excessive risk taking. In the absence of appropriate financial sector reforms, the great global recession would only be a prelude to the next one. Strategically, the postwar multilateral institutions - as forums of global cooperation - must reflect on the proportionate role of the BRIC economies, especially in the United Nations, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Since 2005, the advanced economies have urged China to become a "responsible stakeholder" in the international community. But if the multilateral institutions do not reflect the proportionate economic share and political voice of the large emerging economies, they can hardly be considered "responsible".

Under unchanged policies, the IMF says the net debt-to-GDP ratio of G7 would exceed 440 percent by 2050. Does that reflect responsible leadership?

In the West, the rise of the BRIC economies is occasionally said to be a threat to market economy. Yet the reality is the opposite. A decade ago, about 80 percent of Americans saw the free market as the best economic system for the future. After the global financial crisis, this support has plummeted to 59 percent, according to GlobeScan. In China and Brazil, the corresponding support is 67 percent. In India, it's about the same as in the US.

In the coming years, the economic rise of BRICS (BRIC + South Africa) will gradually translate into increasing political power, which will not minimize the value of other multilateral forums. It will only highlight the importance of new forums.

Until recently, the world was led by the multilateralism of the few in the West. In the future, it will be led by more inclusive multilateralism of the many - in the West and the East both.

The author is research director of International Business at the India, China and America Institute, an independent think tank in the US, and visiting fellow at Shanghai Institutes for International Studies.

(China Daily 04/13/2011 page9)