By 2028, China will surpass the US as the world's No 1 economy, according to a new set of forecasts for the top 30 GDPs prepared by a British consultancy. And the order of the front runners is headed for a major shake-up as well.

Brazil, which briefly nosed ahead of the UK to become the world's 6th largest economy in 2011, but languished in slowing growth, weakened currency and political tensions, will make a comeback, according to the prestigious London-based economic think tank — Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) — in its annual World Economic League Table released last week.

"We see Brazil eventually overtaking the UK and Germany to become the world's 5th largest economy by 2023," the report said, "driven by favourable demographics and strong agricultural trade boosted by the Doha round agreement and by genetically modified foods."

Saying that China's "spectacular economic development" continues and will inevitably slow, but enough to not still overtake the US to become the world's largest economy "in 2028 for the first time since 1890" — a result of not only economic growth stronger than the West's, but also the rise of the Chinese yuan.

For the first time, CEBR has issued its predictions in 5-, 10- and 15-year intervals, which outline complex trends. Russia, for instance, currently in 8th place, will rise to 6th by 2018 but then slide back to 8th by 2023 and stay there through 2028, a performance the study attributes to an anticipated lowering of global energy prices.

France the study predicts to be one of the worst performing economies in the West. Slow growth, high taxation and weak demand for exports will combine to slide France from its current rank of 5th down to 8th by 2018, 10th by 2023 and 13th by 2028.

In the same time frame of the next 15 years, Italy drops from 9th to 15th, Germany goes from 4th to 6th, and Japan holds on to its third place up through 2023, eventually getting passed by India by 2028, with Brazil right behind in 5th.

Among the other Latin American countries in the list of the top 30 GDPs, Mexico, currently in 14th place, climbs to 12th by 2018, holds the position through 2023 and rises further to 9th by 2028. The report attributes this to "the continuing success of the US economy and the position of Mexico in providing cost effective production for the US market".

Argentina, holds its current rank as 26th through 2023 but slides to 29th by 2028, thanks to "consistently bad economic management catch up", the report says.

"Within Latin America, Argentina is forecast to fall back relative to Brazil and Mexico and to be temporarily overtaken by Colombia in 2018 and 2023 — although on the assumption of economic reforms — Argentina overtakes [Colombia] again," the report said.

The authors of the report caution readers to take their forecasts with a grain of salt, explaining that they are based on three major criteria: real GDP growth forecast, an inflation forecast and a currency forecast. And while the first two are usually dependable within 1 or 2 percent, "currencies have a way of fairly wildly defying forecasters' predictions".

The best use of the table, they said, would be if it "encourages governments to focus on achieving economic success and discourages them from populist gestures that make their economies less productive, we will feel satisfied that our analysis has had a beneficial effect".

Some of the more dramatic changes in the current list were South Africa dropping from 28th out of the top 30 (to 33rd) as strikes and weakening currency hobbled its economy; and Iran dropping from 21st to 30th as sanctions' bite sinks in. (Iran does not reappear in the top 30 again through 2028.)

And the highlight of 2023, the report said: "India and Brazil are on the march. India up to 4th, Brazil to 5th", overtaking the UK and Germany.

The authors could not resist a playful gibe: "In 2014," they write, "while the Football World Cup is held in Brazil, it still looks likely that Britain beat Brazil at something by still having a larger economy!"

chrisdavis@chinadailyusa.com