Conference Board expects modest slowdown in China growth in 2018

China's economy will grow slightly less in 2018 from this year, while global growth will continue along a steady but slow path again next year, according to the Conference Board's Global Economic Outlook 2018.

 The New York-based organization, which describes itself as a nonprofit, independent business membership and research association, predicts that China's economy will expand by about 3.9 percent next year, down from 4.2 percent in 2017.

For China, the Conference Board uses a methodology that is different from the results produced by China's National Bureau of Statistics to determine mainland GDP. The Chinese government aims for annual GDP growth of about 6.5 percent using its methodology.

Erik Lundh, the board's senior economist for China, said growth in China came in above expectations in 2017.

The long-term trend of China moving its economy away from exports and infrastructure funding to a greater emphasis on consumption and consumer spending will continue in 2018, Lundh said.

There are some risks for China's economy next year, said Lundh, particularly trade with the US, but he downplayed the chances of a serious trade disagreement between the two countries.

"I am less frightened now about a trade fallout between the two nations," he said, noting that fears about trade from the election of Donald Trump as US president a year ago have largely faded.

Lundh believes the Chinese government has become adept at managing the nation's property market. "We are seeing a slowdown in growth (in the market) and the government has gotten good at handing it. They introduced buying curbs and adjust minimum down payment ratios to mitigate the growth without introducing a severe price decline," he said.

High levels of consumer confidence will continue in 2018 and improving business confidence should spur more investment globally, according to the report, but the board's report said that geo-political and economic risks will remain lurking in the background.

Bart van Ark, the board's chief economist, said global growth is likely to finish 2017 at about 3 percent, slightly ahead of the board's projection of 2.8 percent. Stable energy prices, strong consumer growth and a healthy recovery in Europe helped to prop up the global economy, he said.

Van Ark said 2018 will likely mirror 2017 for global growth. He said companies around the world will need to confront tightening labor markets and become more accomplished at attracting and retaining talent.

paulwelitzkin@chinadailyusa.com