Experts have low hopes for Kerry's China trip

Shi Yinhong, a professor of US studies at Renmin University of China, said that "though China is angry about the DPRK's recent bomb test, it is unlikely to take the tough measures that the US and ROK have expected, given the complexity of the situation".

"So I do not see any tangible progress on this issue during Kerry's visit to Beijing, though the two sides may thoroughly discuss the matter," he said.

Doug Bandow, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, said the Obama's administration policy toward the DPRK has not worked.

He said the only other alternative is what Beijing has advocated all along - to engage with the DPRK.

"Obviously, there's no guarantee that this approach will work either. Nevertheless, it offers what the North most wants – direct contact with America. The Obama administration's insistence that Pyongyang take steps toward denuclearization first is a non-starter. Talking will be necessary before any concessions can be gained," he wrote in an article in the China-US Focus on Jan 21.

Bandow believes negotiations also seem essential to winning greater Chinese support in dealing with the DPRK. In China's view, the US is responsible for creating a hostile security environment for the North.

Shen Shishun, an expert on East Asian studies at the China Institute of International Studies, said that Washington will have a hard time achieving its goals with ASEAN because China's neighbors have deep and broad mutual interests with Beijing.

"China has always taken care of the interests of friendly neighbors when it develops its own economy," Shen said.

And China remains the engine of the Asian economy, he added. "To maintain good relations with China is vital for the stable development of the Laotian and Cambodian economies."

Beijing has opposed the US approach to internationalize the South China Sea territorial disputes and insisted that its disputes with some ASEAN members should be solved through peaceful negotiations among countries directly involved.

The US has long tried to get Laos and Cambodia closer to its camp in a move perceived by China as trying to curtail its influence in the region. Early this year, the US had pressured its allies not to join the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).

Larry Summers, who served as Obama's chief economic adviser, said on Monday that the US objection was aimed at avoiding its own embarrassment because the US Congress would not approve funding a China-led bank.

Contact the writer at chenweihua@chinadailyusa.com

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