Early poll gives Biden 13-point lead on Trump

The latest Quinnipiac University poll shows former vice-president Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 13 points nationally in a head-to-head matchup.

But the poll of 1,214 registered voters showing Biden winning 53 percent of the vote against 40 percent for Trump, a landslide margin, should be read with caution for several reasons.

"Any poll is a snapshot of the moment," Jonathan Zogby, CEO of research company Zobgy Analytics, told China Daily. "It shows Biden is popular, and the poll will get him media coverage, and that will help build momentum. But we're not sure what voters will do. There are so many variables that could change the race right up to November 2020. This poll doesn't mean Biden will win."

Early polls are often upended when the first ballots are cast in the primary elections. And polls can be – and have been – wrong in US presidential elections.

In 2016, most polls showed former secretary of state Hillary Clinton easily defeating Trump. But Clinton ran a passive campaign and didn't campaign in Wisconsin or Michigan, states that had voted for Democrats in prior elections but switched to Trump, helping assure his victory.

It's also early in the election cycle. The Iowa caucuses will be held Feb 3, 2020, and the New Hampshire primary, the first in the nation, will be the following week.

The first Democratic Party debates will be on June 26 and June 27, with 10 candidates on each night. Early polls may reflect little more than name recognition and, as Zogby said, popularity.

The Quinnipiac poll is a national poll and doesn't reflect sentiment in individual states, especially swing states that could support either a Democrat or a Republican and may determine the winner.

The poll is of registered voters — not likely voters— and therefore may not reflect the sentiment of those who will cast ballots in November 2020.

"The poll is a barometer, and it shows Biden is popular and has a shot, and that will help him raise money for the campaign," Zogby said. "The poll has value, even if it's not perfect."

Still, the poll can be seen as a warning for Trump because it also shows him trailing six other Democratic candidates by five to 13 points in potential head-to-head contests.

It shows that Biden leads Trump 47 to 46 percent among men, but among women, Biden leads 60 to 34 percent, a 26-point lead. White voters favor Trump 47 to 46 percent. Among black voters, Biden leads 85 to 12 percent, and 58 to 33 percent among Hispanic voters.

However, a Zogby poll published May 14 showed Trump's approval rating above 50 percent. Trump is winning back Hispanic, independent, college-educated and urban voters, according to that poll. Overall, 30 percent strongly approve and 21 percent somewhat approve of the president.

On Wednesday, The New York Times reported that Trump asked aides to deny that internal polling showed he was trailing in key states. Trump denied the report.

As for Biden, an Economist/YouGov national poll showed his lead over the rest of the Democratic field shrinking, and a poll of American millionaires showed they would elect Biden over Trump if he becomes the Democratic nominee.

The Economist poll has Biden dropping from a 20-to-30-point lead after he announced his campaign in late April to 10 points. It also put Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren behind Biden, replacing Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders in second place.

It's the first time since she entered the race that Warren has led Sanders by more than the margin of error in a national poll.

One group of Americans that isn't representative of voters as a whole also favors Biden over Trump — American millionaires.

They would elect Biden if he becomes the Democratic nominee, according to the CNBC Millionaire survey released on Wednesday. Biden and Pete Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Indiana, are the only Democratic nominees who beat Trump among the top Democratic candidates in a head-to-head race, according to the poll.

Fully 53 percent of millionaire respondents said they would vote for Biden, compared with 39 percent for Trump, while 9 percent would be undecided. In a race between Trump and Buttigieg, the mayor wins 43 percent to Trump's 42 percent.

To be included in the poll, respondents had to have investable assets of $1 million or more. Of the 750 respondents, 261 were Republicans, 218 were Democrats and 261 identified as independent.

George Walper, president of Spectrem Group, which conducts the survey, said that just as in 2016, wealthy voters may be underreporting their support for Trump.

A CNBC Millionaire Survey got the 2016 election wrong. The wealthy backed Clinton over Trump, 44 percent to 31 percent.

"Trump is divisive," Zogby said. "There is no middle ground — voters like him or hate him. Trump has a strong economy, and he's the incumbent. But I think Trump will be in for a tough fight if he's up against Biden."