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Hard Brexit threatens prosperity levels in European member states: Ifo

Xinhua | Updated: 2019-08-24 03:10


BERLIN - A hard Brexit would negatively affect prosperity levels among member states of the European Union (EU), a study published by the German Institute for Economic Research (Ifo) on Friday showed.

In Europe's largest economy Germany, prosperity levels are expected by the Ifo institute to decline by 0.72 percent as a consequence of a no-deal Brexit.

However, "a hard Brexit would impact different EU member states to varying degrees," said Marina Steininger, researcher at the German Ifo institute and co-author of the study.

The Irish economy would be hit the hardest by a withdrawal of Britain from the EU without an agreement. The prosperity level in Ireland would fall by 8.16 percent, according to the Ifo institute.

While European countries would economically suffer the most from a hard Brexit, the effects on the rest of the world would be "limited," noted Ifo researcher Steininger.

For the United States, Ifo is anticipating a decline of only 0.01 percent. In Turkey and South Korea, prosperity levels are expected to fall by 0.04 and 0.03 percent respectively.

A hard Brexit would trigger "trade diversion effects", Ifo researcher Steininger told Xinhua. Trade between the EU27 and Britain would be "replaced by trade with other countries" after a no-deal Brexit.

Prosperity levels of the small central European country of Luxembourg as well as the Mediterranean island Malta would also suffer badly. The Ifo is expecting a decline by 5.23 percent and 5.19 percent respectively.

According to Ifo, "uncertainties for investors and shifting exchange rates" could further deepen the negative impact of a hard Brexit.

Britain which is on course to leave the European Union at the end of October would witness a decline in prosperity of 2.76 percent, the German economic institute stated.

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