Nuclear talks hinge on a fresh tack

With progress stalled in 2019, US and the DPRK are urged to seek consensus

The year of 2019 contrasts starkly with the peace euphoria that descended on the Korean Peninsula in the previous year, as uncertainty shrouds the future of US-DPRK nuclear talks and inter-Korean relations.

Since the start of this year, promises and progress have been made toward a step-by-step political resolution to denuclearize the peninsula. However, the peace process, which is still severely challenged by deep-seated problems, has stalled.

In February, US President Donald Trump and the top leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Kim Jong-un held their second summit in Vietnam's capital Hanoi, without reaching an agreement due to their divergences on several key issues including relief of economic sanctions on the DPRK and the approach to denuclearization. The two leaders also shook hands for a photo-op at the inter-Korean border village of Panmunjom in late June.

Despite both sides' willingness to continue talks, negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang have seen little substantive progress.

In early October, a fresh round of working-level meetings in the Swedish capital of Stockholm broke down with no tangible outcome.

Pyongyang accused Washington of having come to the dialogue table "empty-handed", while Washington tried to put a positive spin on the talks, with negotiators claiming they had brought "creative ideas" and previewed a number of "new initiatives".

The DPRK also set a deadline for the United States to offer mutually acceptable terms for a deal by the end of this year. Failing that, it will seek a "new path". Earlier this month, it claimed to have conducted "critical tests" at its Sohae Satellite Launching Ground, stirring up concerns that more such tests may follow.

The no-deal summit in February was a reminder of the gulf between the two countries over the scope of Pyongyang's denuclearization steps and what concessions the US should give in return, according to Wang Junsheng, an associate researcher at the National Institute of International Strategy under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

"Despite all their efforts to date, they have failed to find the convergence of their interests or common ground", Wang said, adding that each side has underplayed the other's desire for a deal. Both sides have latched onto their own demands and principles, which has blurred the prospects of the dialogue process and exacerbated their mistrust.

Some analysts said the fruitless Hanoi summit was a setback for both leaders. Kim, who took a nearly 70-hour train trip to reach Vietnam, may have anticipated that a deal would unleash economic opportunities that would deliver on his pledge for his people "never to have to tighten your belt".

Trump also need to improve relations between the DPRK and the US as a political achievement to boost his domestic support.

But with slow or merely no progress, tensions flared anew since May as Pyongyang escalated weapons tests in a move to heap pressure on Washington to show flexibility to break the deadlock in the negotiations.

Unrealistic goals

Inter-Korean relations also suffered stagnation and setbacks since then. In November, Seoul expressed regrets over Pyongyang's artillery firing drills on a border island, saying the act violated the inter-Korean military agreement signed by defense chiefs of the two neighbors during the third summit between Kim and the Republic of Korea's President Moon Jae-in in Pyongyang in 2018.

Amid little progress in the nuclear talks and inter-Korean exchanges, Kim in October ordered the removal of "all the unpleasant-looking facilities" that the ROK built for the long shuttered Mount Kumgang resort on the eastern DPRK coast close to the border with the ROK.

Zheng Jiyong, director of the Korea Research Center at Fudan University in Shanghai, said Kim's order drove home an unmistakable message that, with little progress in the nuclear negotiations between the US and the DPRK, inter-Korean cooperation can hardly move forward.

The absence of progress can be attributed to the unrealistically high goals set by the US and the DPRK, which limited negotiators' flexibility, Zheng added.

"As the goals are too high, the negotiating teams should recalibrate their strategic goals in more realistic terms," Zheng said.

With all these twists and turns, the Korean Peninsula is facing another critical juncture in the upcoming year. Zheng said the most pressing task for all stakeholders is to maintain momentum for diplomatic efforts and to prevent the situation from taking a turn for the worse.

Wang said: "To achieve denuclearization and build a viable peace regime on the peninsula requires bold decisions, political wisdom, and accumulation of mutual trust. These goals cannot be achieved in one go. A phased approach remains a practical solution."

Instead of retrogressing to the dark days of "fire and fury", many analysts believe that both sides should abandon their tactic of putting pressure, while they should jointly reach a consensus and keep moving forward in the correct direction. Dialogue is always a better option than confrontation.