Syrian bid to retake Idlib will take time

Experts say that Russia-Turkey stalemate will put spokes in the Damascus plan

The Syrian government has vowed to recover all its lost land in Idlib Province, but the reality is that this could be a long journey, especially as Russia and Turkey are stuck in a tense standoff in the border region and two European countries want to get involved.

Over the past few weeks, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's forces, backed by Russia, have captured dozens of towns and villages in Idlib and parts of Aleppo Province, the last remaining rebel strongholds in the country.

But it is too early to claim a complete victory in this area, especially as there still some Turkish troops, military observation posts as well as rebels backed by Turkey in the area.

Russia and Turkey, who back rival groups in the Syrian conflict, are resorting to tit-for-tat attacks in northwestern Syria, and their differences are one of the fundamental reasons that the two could not reach a cease-fire agreement, said Li Guofu, an expert on Middle East studies with the China Institute of International Studies.

"Turkey wants a cease-fire under the 2018 Sochi agreement and wants to restore the situation to the pre-military action position, which means getting Assad's army to give up some of its latest achievements," said Li. "But Syria and Russia don't agree with Turkey."

Russia's idea is to stabilize the situation first, and then support the Syrian government to gradually get back control of its entire territory, a basic principle Russia insists on, Li said.

Previously, Russia has turned down an invitation from Turkey when Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that there were currently no discussions on about a possible meeting between President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Moreover, even when the two countries share the common position on respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria, their interpretations are quite different.

Russia says that the Syrian government should have the right to recover all its lost land and exercise national sovereignty throughout its territory, said Dong Manyuan, also a CIIS expert.

But Turkey says that its involvement in Syria is to combat terrorism and thus protect the security of its land. And the establishment of a safe zone in Syria is to prevent refugee flows from entering Turkey and endangering itself.

"Turkey says that the respect should be 'mutual'. If Turkey respects Syria's integrity and security, then Syria and Russia need to do the same and protect Turkey's rights to defend itself," Dong said.

However, there still seems to be space for negotiations between Russia and Turkey, given that both sides are reluctant to see a collapse in their relationship or more military conflicts because of what happens in Idlib.

Dong said the demands of Russia and Turkey on the Syrian issue are not conflicting. "Russia wants to maintain the current Syrian government. And Turkey just wants to satisfy its own interests, and does not want to overthrow the Syrian government," he said.

Both Moscow and Ankara wish to maintain the Sochi agreement, a by-product of the Astana talks, to protect their own interests. The talks, involving Russia, Iran and Turkey, aim to promote the peace process in Syria.

A four-way summit

It is possible that third parties could be invited to play the role of mediator as Russia and Turkey are locked in a stalemate as they still desire to achieve some common goals. On Feb 22, after a series of phone calls, Erdogan announced plans to hold a summit on March 5 with the leaders of Russia, Germany and France to discuss the situation in Syria's Idlib region.

Peskov, the spokesman of the Kremlin, also said Russia was discussing the possibility of such a multilateral meeting.

However, the outcome of the proposed meeting, if any, may not be as promising as expected.

It is more likely that France and Germany will favor Turkey more during the meeting, Dong said.

"Since the war broke out in Syria in 2011, France and Germany have been on the side of the Syrian oppositions and negated the legitimacy of the Syrian government led by Assad," he said, adding that the two are in agreement with Turkey on the refugee issue, worrying that terrorists may pretend to be refugees and sneak into Europe.

If the parties want to achieve a cease-fire in Idlib, German and French need to figure out how to make the groups in Syria, Russia and Turkey all "take a step back".

"In my opinion, only in this case is it possible for the two sides to achieve a cease-fire," Li said.