Global economic uncertainty grows

Amid widespread concerns about the Ukraine crisis, the crude oil price hit more than $110 a barrel on Wednesday, the highest since 2013, and the benchmark natural gas price soared 55 percent, hitting $2,200 per kilostere, a historical record.

While the United States and Europe have so far refrained from imposing sanctions directly on Russian commodities, including oil and gas, to prevent already high inflation from spiraling out of control, the sanctions on Russia's financial sector will necessarily hurt commodities trading and send shipping costs soaring.

The continuous rise of commodity prices may drag down the growth of some major economies and further fuel inflation, bringing the risk of global stagflation. This will create great uncertainty for the recovering global economy and increase the likelihood of a global recession. The stability of US markets and its economic growth could be threatened if the Fed does not act decisively to tame the US' inflation.

The European Union, perhaps the economy hardest hit by the Ukraine crisis, is heavily dependent on Russia for resources. Rising oil and gas and food prices will further increase the inflationary pressure in the EU, and sanctions against Russia may also hit the EU countries. In addition, the EU countries may increase their defense spending and fiscal deficits, and the EU's uneven economic performance could push some countries into recession first.

So far, Russia has not responded to the US-led sanctions. In addition to its oil and gas resources, Russia accounts for more than 10 percent of the global supply of palladium, antimony, vanadium, platinum, titanium, nickel, gold and other metals, with palladium and antimony each accounting for more than 20 percent of the global market.

In general, the global economy faces the risk of continuous uncertainty in the commodity market and inflationary pressure, which increases the possibility of global economic recession this year.

In this context, China's status as a "global safe haven" is being strengthened. With the renminbi facing certain appreciation pressure, China should ensure food and energy security. The risks it faces are controllable, but it also needs to pay close attention to the pressure of rising costs and insufficient consumption in the manufacturing sector.