Overturned abortion ruling may reshape state politics

The impact of the US Supreme Court's landmark decision to overturn nearly 50 years of precedent set in Roe vs Wade, which established women's federal right to abortions, will be strongly felt in state elections, where voters have become galvanized over the issue.

The Supreme Court voted 6-3 to strike down Roe vs Wade and ruled that states will decide if abortion is legal or not. Races for the governor and state legislature elections are now critically important to the future of abortion rights.

Senator Josh Hawley, a Republican from Missouri, said he believes the Supreme Court's ruling could reshape US politics and force people affiliated with one party to relocate to states that better support their views.

"I would predict that the effect is going to be that more and more red (Republican) states are going to become more red, purple (mixed Republican and Democratic) states are going to become red, and the blue (Democratic) states are going to get a lot bluer," Hawley told reporters. "I would look for Republicans as a result of this to extend their strength in the Electoral College. And that's very good news."

Since the court's decision on June 24, the country's Democrat majority legislatures have or plan to maintain and expand abortion rights. Republican majority states, many in the south and west, have or plan to ban abortions outright.

At least 34 out of 50 states will elect governors. There will also be state legislative elections. Positions on abortion and gun rights, also in the spotlight due to the recent mass shootings in New York, Texas and Illinois, will likely be the two issues that are important to voters. Republicans will likely tout their success at getting the conservative majority on the Supreme Court to overturn Roe vs Wade.

But a Quinnipiac University poll in June found that at least 62 percent of those polled had supported Roe vs Wade, including 90 percent of Democrats, 60 percent of independents and nearly 40 percent of Republicans.

Carl Bogus, a law professor at Roger Williams University in Rhode Island, told China Daily that people "are losing faith in the Supreme Court as a neutral arbiter of the law".

Voting in focus

Voting will now become crucial in states where the outcome of elections will determine whether abortion will remain legal or not. For instance, this will be felt in the gubernatorial election in the battleground state of Pennsylvania.

There, Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro has vowed to block any bill the Republican-controlled legislature wants to pass to ban or restrict abortion rights if he becomes governor. His opponent, Republican State Senator Doug Mastriano, has vowed to push to get an abortion ban.

In May, a nationwide Kaiser Family Foundation poll of 1,285 adults found that 37 percent of registered voters said Roe vs Wade being struck down would make them more motivated to vote in the midterms. This included 55 percent of Democratic voters. In contrast, 73 percent of Republican voters said the reversal would not make a difference in their motivation to vote.

"The findings suggest that a decision to overturn Roe could narrow a midterm voter enthusiasm gap, projected to favor the Republican party over the Democratic party," the poll's authors wrote.

This year, Democratic campaigns have spent nearly $18 million in advertising on abortion issues, while Republicans have spent nearly $21 million, according to AdImpact, a media tracking firm. Those amounts are expected to jump following the verdict.

Anti-abortion rights group Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America plans to engage 8 million voters in critical battleground states that are undecided.

President Joe Biden hoped that the high court's ruling would jolt voters into action at the polls. "This fall, Roe is on the ballot. Personal freedoms are on the ballot," Biden said. "The right to privacy, liberty, equality, they're all on the ballot."

Former vice-president Mike Pence said he wanted Roe to lead to a wider abortion ban in all states.

As states wield more power, some people may choose to move to jobs and cities that support their political and personal views.

Companies offer aid

Several high-profile companies including Google, Amazon, Walt Disney and Salesforce have told female workers that they will assist them if they live in states where abortion is not legal and they want to move. Many companies have announced that their healthcare plans will cover travel for out-of-state abortions.

Some women who live in states that restrict or ban online medical abortion pills, which accounted for 54 percent of all abortions in 2020, have been finding ways around restrictive state law, said the Guttmacher Institute, a research organization on reproductive rights in the US.

Rather than relocating, they have been getting access to pills by buying them from other states and having them delivered to other states where they pick them up or have them mail forwarded, said Elisa Wells, co-founder of Plan C, an abortion pill advocacy group.

"As states pass unjust laws that restrict access to abortion, it is essential that people know that they can still access medication abortion pills by mail in all states," Wells told China Daily.

belindarobinson@chinadailyusa.com