Draghi exit casts long shadow over Italy's election campaign

Departing Prime Minister Mario Draghi threatens to cast a long shadow over the campaign for Italy's general election on Sept 25, despite having been unseated from power.

The former head of the European Central Bank, who came from a non-political background, was appointed prime minister at the head of a national unity government 18 months ago, and charged with helping Italy's already delicate economy through the aftermath of the novel coronavirus pandemic.

But having succeeded in holding together a coalition that included factions such as the anti-establishment Five Star Movement, and Matteo Salvini's League party, when Draghi faced a vote of confidence on July 20, which he won, those two and the Forza Italia party boycotted the vote, undermining his authority, and he resigned.

Sharp divisions have been observed between those who supported Draghi and those who contributed to his downfall.

"It's a very clear dividing line between those who have kind of killed the king, and those who tried to save the king," Daniele Albertazzi, a politics professor at the University of Surrey, told the Financial Times.

"There is a good chunk of public opinion that thought the Draghi government was OK and don't like what happened. The big question is, is this going to shift a lot of votes?"

Polling suggests Giorgia Meloni, leader of the Brothers of Italy party, is on course to be the new prime minister at the head of a right-wing coalition, which would have major implications far beyond Italy.

Meloni is a close ally of Salvini, who has been open in his admiration for Russia's President Vladimir Putin, once wearing a shirt with his face on it in the European Parliament.

"If a new Italian government is more sympathetic to Russia, it would be a concern to Italy's allies," Margaret MacMillan, emeritus professor of International History at Oxford University, told the Politico website.

However, political instability is hardly new in Italy. The next government will be its 70th since the end of World War II, and Giovanni Orsina, head of the school of government at Luiss University in Rome, told the BBC public opinion was changeable, so the post-election haggling and deal-making could be prolonged.

"Italian politics has become very fluid; voters change their minds very easily. Parties are very weak as well, and there's a big deal of fragmentation," he said.

"The memory of how the Draghi government fell will be part of voters' choices," added Lorenzo Pregliasco, from political polling company YouTrend. "The dynamics that led to his resignation are very much political and they can shape the election campaign in the coming weeks."