UK preparing for a cold winter of power outages

The United Kingdom is drawing up and testing contingency plans amid fears the nation could be hit with power outages this winter as a result of the global energy crisis.

The plans include "war gamed "scenarios for outages of up to seven days, according to The Guardian newspaper, which said it has seen government documents on the subject, marked "official sensitive".

The paper said the documents warn that a "reasonable worst-case scenario" would see all areas of the country's economy impacted by blackouts. The documents reportedly say communications, food and water supply, and transport could all be "severely disrupted" for as long as a week.

The Guardian said the plans call for the government to prioritize the provision of food, water, and shelter for young people and elderly residents, and for carers to also receive support.

The contingency plans, reportedly known as Programme Yarrow, are currently being finalized and tested in a series of exercises involving government departments and local councils, The Guardian added.

Programme Yarrow was updated after global shortages of oil, gas, and other commodities were triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, sparking sharp hikes in the cost of energy. But the plans were begun in 2021, before the conflict started, as a way to prepare for a power outage triggered by a technical fault or a natural disaster.

The Sun newspaper said Program Yarrow will now ensure the UK is also prepared for power outages caused by "hostile attacks" on its infrastructure.

An unnamed government spokesperson denied the contingency planning was connected to the situation in Ukraine or to hostile threats, but said it is prudent for governments to be ready for all eventualities.

"As a responsible government, it is right that we plan for all potential scenarios and work with industry to prepare and exercise robust contingency plans," he said. "This work is ongoing continuously and is an important strand of our national resilience planning."

The spokesman said the government wants to be able to deal with all challenges, "no matter how unlikely they may be".

The BBC noted that a power outage could be especially damaging this winter, because the nation's main weather forecaster has said it could be unusually cold.

Earlier, John Pettigrew, head of the UK's National Grid, which handles the country's electricity and natural gas transmission, said at the Financial Times' Energy Transition Summit that blackouts could occur in January and February, when demand will be high and energy supplies may be stretched.

While high energy prices and supply shortages have cast a shadow over the winter, the Bloomberg news agency said Goldman Sachs is now predicting European natural gas prices will fall by 30 percent in the coming months because Europe has efficiently stockpiled supplies, and because fall temperatures have been mild.