US base plan risks losing Okinawans' trust

The Japanese government's coercive approach to relocating a US military base in Okinawa Prefecture will intensify Okinawans' anti-US sentiment, worsen their trust in the Tokyo administration, and deepen friction between the local and central authorities, experts said.

On Dec 28, Japan's Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Tetsuo Saito granted approval for design changes concerning the relocation of the US Marine Corps Air Station Futenma in Okinawa.

The planned site in the Henoko coastal area of Nago, Okinawa, is set to replace the current location in Ginowan, also on Okinawa's main island.

Saito's approval was granted in lieu of the Okinawa prefectural government, which had refused to give its consent. Consequently, the Ministry of Defense is set to resume comprehensive construction activities in Henoko as early as mid-January.

Kazuyuki Hamada, an expert in US political science and Japan's former parliamentary vice-minister for foreign affairs, said that even more than 75 years after the end of World War II, an abnormal situation persists in Japan with over 130 US military bases scattered across the country. More than 70 percent of them are concentrated in Okinawa.

The government needs to consider the "unfairness" felt by the people of Okinawa.

"Why is Okinawa, with only 0.6 percent of the nation's land area, burdened with 70 percent of US military facilities in Japan?" Hamada said.

"While maintaining an alliance with the US is diplomatically important for a nation, it seems unnecessary from a security standpoint to continue sustaining US military bases under the financial burden of the Japanese government," he said.

"If the relocation of the US military base to Henoko proceeds, Okinawa will bear an excessive base burden for over 100 years," Hamada added.

The Ministry of Defense announced in 2019 that the estimated overall cost of constructing a replacement facility for the US military base will reach 930 billion yen ($6.48 billion).

Mounting pressure

"If the central government continues to prioritize its relationship with the US over the intentions of Okinawa and other local governments, it is unavoidable that resentment and destabilization toward the administration will increase," Hamada said.

Currently, the central government is exerting pressure on Okinawa Governor Denny Tamaki.

This pressure extends not only to the governor but also to Okinawa as a whole, indicating that if the prefecture does not comply with the government's demands, measures such as salary reductions will be imposed.

The Japanese government has demanded missile deployment in prefectures such as Oita and Aomori, in addition to Okinawa. Most municipalities are opposed to this top-down decision, said Kumiko Haba, professor emeritus at Aoyama Gakuin University in Tokyo.

"Currently, there is a conflict between municipalities desiring peace and stability and a government attempting to deploy missiles across the Japanese archipelago in alliance with the United States," Haba said.

"The majority of Japanese people do not want missiles deployed toward China in the cities where they live. Doubts and dissatisfaction with the government are growing from various municipalities," she added.

In response to public sentiment, Okinawa Prefecture has filed an appeal with the Supreme Court.

"Deploying missiles to Okinawa violates Article 9 of the Constitution, and the judiciary should clearly make a democratic judgment against a government that does not respect the popular will," Haba said.

"Rather than following the US directives, it is important for both the government and Okinawa to communicate with the US, emphasizing the unsuitability of the terrain for aircraft takeoffs and landings," she said.

Hamada, the political scientist, noted that if the relocation plan is forced through without the understanding of the people, it will worsen both Okinawans' anti-US sentiment and their trust in the central government, potentially leading to the destabilization of Japan-US relations.